GIS investigation of the fire history of Jonkershoek Nature Reserve

Fire regimes have the potential to disturb ecological aspects of a landscape and/or contribute to the maintenance of the biological diversity. Thus, a gauge of the impact of planned and unplanned fire regimes is vital to South Africa’s national reserves. The Jonkershoek Nature Reserve in the Western Cape is characterized by the occurrence of indigenous Fynbos and Afromontane Forest vegetation. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) can aid the management and preservation of indigenous vegetational species. This study used knowledge of the ecological conditions of the Reserve, historical fire data, Landsat TM and Landsat OLI imagery, and geospatial analysis to investigate the impact of the fire regimes in the Reserve. Image classification was carried out from 2005 to 2015 to determine the burn patterns, with the process being aided by the fire regime history from 1970 to 2015. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) analysis was carried out to determine how abiotic factors, such as elevation, slope and aspect, impact fires in the Reserve. The assessment of fires included the ascertainment of their location, coverage, and frequency, the Normalised Burn Ratio (NBR), the differenced Normalised Burn Ratio (dNBR) and the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). There were 39 fires recorded in the Jonkershoek Nature Reserve from 1970 to 2015. The largest fire events were recorded in 1999 (26503.6 ha.) and 2015 (8363.0 ha.). The lowest area of fire impact recorded occurred in the years 2010 (0.15ha.), 1973 (1.1 ha.) and 1987 (3.1 ha.). With an overall classification accuracy of 94.17%, the Landsat OLI imagery performed better with an overall classification accuracy of 94.17% than the Landsat TM at 75.83%. The OLS regression showed that fire severity was positively correlated to NDVI and elevation. This may suggest that regions of healthy vegetation at any altitude may be susceptible to burnings if there is sufficient vegetation to fuel a fire. The OLS was negatively correlated to slope and aspect. This may impact fire risk as steeper slopes may have vegetation growing in their fire shadow.