马来西亚吉兰丹河流域气候变化情景下使用设计降雨的洪水危险性评估

T. Tam, M. Z. Abdul Rahman, S. Harun, Shamsuddin Shahid, S. Try, M. Jamal, Z. Ismail, K. A. Razak, M. K. Ghani, Yusrin Faiz Abdul Wahab
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的本研究旨在利用当前和未来的情景评估气候变化对吉兰丹河流域洪水灾害潜力的影响。设计/方法/方法强度-持续时间频率(IDF)用于估计当前50年和100年一遇24小时设计降雨量,气候变化因子(CCF)用于计算未来设计降雨量。CCF是根据CGCM1和CCSM3两个全球气候模型的降雨量预测计算得出的,每个模型都应用了不同的预处理步骤。IDF数据用于降雨径流淹没模型,以模拟当前和未来的洪水淹没情景。结果估计的共因失效值显示了一种对比,即CGCM1的每个站的共因故障值大于1,而CCSM3的一些站的共有故障值小于1。因此,CGCM1预测未来情景的洪水危害会加剧,CCSM3预测未来情景会减少。这项研究表明,地形在计算CCF.起源/价值方面起着至关重要的作用。据作者所知,这是首次对吉兰丹河流域的洪水预测进行研究。因此,希望这些结果能使当地管理人员和当局受益,使他们能够在气候变化的情况下就减轻洪水风险做出明智的决定。
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Flood hazard assessment using design rainfall under climate change scenarios in the Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia
Purpose The present study aims to evaluate the effect of climate change on the flood hazard potential in the Kelantan River Basin using current and future scenarios. Design/methodology/approach The intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) was used to estimate the current 50- and 100-year return period 24-h design rainfall, and the climate change factor (CCF) was used to compute the future design rainfall. The CCF was calculated from the rainfall projections of two global climate models, CGCM1 and CCSM3, with different pre-processing steps applied to each. The IDF data were used in the rainfall-runoff-inundation model to simulate current and future flood inundation scenarios. Findings The estimated CCF values demonstrate a contrast, whereby each station had a CCF value greater than one for CGCM1, while some stations had a CCF value of less than one for CCSM3. Therefore, CGCM1 projected an aggravation and CCSM3 a reduction of flood hazard for future scenarios. The study reveals that topography plays an essential role in calculating the CCF. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to examine flood projections in the Kelantan River Basin. It is, therefore, hoped that these results could benefit local managers and authorities by enabling them to make informed decisions regarding flood risk mitigation in a climate change scenario.
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CiteScore
3.40
自引率
6.20%
发文量
49
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