投票前时期美国公众如何看待各州的选举竞争:1896年总统选举的预测市场数据分析

IF 1.7 2区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE State Politics & Policy Quarterly Pub Date : 2022-10-18 DOI:10.1017/spq.2022.14
Vanessa M. Perez
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摘要

摘要本研究使用美国历史选举博彩市场的预测市场数据来衡量科学民调出现之前美国各州的选举竞争。博彩赔率数据总体上捕捉了对选举接近度的事前预期,并因此改进了基于选举结果数据的现有竞争指标。在对1896年总统选举及其相关调整的分析中,我认为市场赔率数据表明,人们能够预测调整,对各州选举结果的预期影响了选民投票率。调查结果显示,在大选前一个月,博彩市场准确预测了麦金利在大多数州的胜利。这项研究进一步表明,市场预测确定了当年选举竞争将增加或减少的州,以及这些预期的党派分歧对投票率的影响。在预期势均力敌的地方,选民的预期导致投票率上升了6%。在被视为缺乏选举竞争力的州,参与率下降了1%-6%。这些结果支持了重组文献中的转换和让与理论。
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How the American Public Perceived Electoral Competition in the States during the Pre-poll Era: A Prediction Market Data Analysis of the 1896 Presidential Election
Abstract This study uses prediction market data from the nation’s historical election betting markets to measure electoral competition in the American states during the era before the advent of scientific polling. Betting odds data capture ex ante expectations of electoral closeness in the aggregate, and as such improve upon existing measures of competition based on election returns data. Situated in an analysis of the 1896 presidential election and its associated realignment, I argue that the market odds data show that people were able to anticipate the realignment and that expectations on the outcome in the states influenced voter turnout. Findings show that a month ahead of the election betting markets accurately forecast a McKinley victory in most states. This study further demonstrates that the market predictions identify those states where electoral competition would increase or decline that year and the consequences of these expected partisanship shifts on turnout. In places where the anticipation was for a close race voter expectations account for a turnout increase of as much as 6%. Participation dropped by 1%–6% in states perceived as becoming electorally uncompetitive. The results support the conversion and dealignment theories from the realignment literature.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.00
自引率
6.70%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: State Politics & Policy Quarterly (SPPQ) features studies that develop general hypotheses of political behavior and policymaking and test these hypotheses using the unique methodological advantages of the states. It also includes field review essays and a section entitled “The Practical Researcher,” which is a service-oriented feature designed to provide a data, methodological, and assessment resource for those conducting research on state politics. SPPQ is the official journal of the State Politics and Policy section of the American Political Science Association and is published by the University of Illinois Press for the Institute of Legislative Studies at the University of Illinois at Springfield.
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