用八种概率分布理论建立公式对伊拉克卡尔巴拉市降雨事件的频率分析

IF 2.4 Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Smart Science Pub Date : 2023-06-04 DOI:10.1080/23080477.2023.2220916
A. T. Al-Awadi, R. J. Al-Saadi, A. A. Mutasher
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要:由于其对水文模型的推导以及下水道和雨水管网的安全设计有影响,因此应深入研究降雨事件的预测。在这方面,研究伊拉克卡尔巴拉的降雨事件具有特别重要的意义,因为该市人口迅速增加,2003年以后受到气候变化的影响。本文对卡尔巴拉市的最大日降雨量进行了分析,以使用频率分析来调查和提取其未来发生的概率。使用Hyfran Plus软件拟合了8种理论概率分布,即威布尔、伽玛、甘贝尔、对数正态、广义极值、正态、指数和对数-皮尔逊III型,以模拟降雨深度观测概率的特征。基于四个统计指标的结果,与其他分布相比,指数分布表现出最好的性能。照着‎24年的合成风暴 导出hr‎ 干旱和半干旱地区使用土壤保持服务方法的降雨深度累积和增量分布到重现期‎‎(T = 2、5、10、15、25、50、100、200和500),还绘制了降雨强度-持续时间-频率曲线。作为一项重要发现,提出了一个新的经验证的经验公式来优化卡尔巴拉市的位置系数,这可能填补伊拉克降雨强度预测和改进风暴管理策略的空白。
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Frequency analysis of rainfall events in Karbala city, Iraq, by creating a proposed formula with eight probability distribution theories
ABSTRACT Due to its impact on the derivation of hydrological models and the safe design of sewer and storm networks, the anticipation of rainfall events should be intensively studied. In this regard, studying the rainfall events in Karbala, Iraq, has specific importance after the rapid increase in population in this city and the impact of climate change beyond 2003. Herein, the maximum daily rainfall depth of Karbala city has been analyzed to investigate and extract its probability of future occurrence using frequency analysis. Eight theoretical probability distributions, which are Weibull, Gamma, Gumbel, Log normal, Generalized Extreme Value, Normal, Exponential, and Log-Pearson Type III, were fitted using Hyfran Plus software to simulate the characteristics of the observed probability of rainfall depth. Based on the results of four statistical indicators, the exponential distribution revealed the best performance as compared with other distributions. Accordingly, ‎the synthetic storms of 24 hr were derived‎ for cumulative and incremental distribution of rainfall depth using the Soil Conservation Service method type ΙΙ for the arid and semiarid region to recurrence periods ‎‎(T = 2, 5, 10, 15, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500), also the rainfall intensity duration frequency curves were developed. As an essential finding, new validated empirical formula has been proposed to optimize the coefficients of the location of Karbala city which may fill the gap for predicting the rainfall intensity and improving storm management strategies in Iraq.
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来源期刊
Smart Science
Smart Science Engineering-Engineering (all)
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
4.30%
发文量
21
期刊介绍: Smart Science (ISSN 2308-0477) is an international, peer-reviewed journal that publishes significant original scientific researches, and reviews and analyses of current research and science policy. We welcome submissions of high quality papers from all fields of science and from any source. Articles of an interdisciplinary nature are particularly welcomed. Smart Science aims to be among the top multidisciplinary journals covering a broad spectrum of smart topics in the fields of materials science, chemistry, physics, engineering, medicine, and biology. Smart Science is currently focusing on the topics of Smart Manufacturing (CPS, IoT and AI) for Industry 4.0, Smart Energy and Smart Chemistry and Materials. Other specific research areas covered by the journal include, but are not limited to: 1. Smart Science in the Future 2. Smart Manufacturing: -Cyber-Physical System (CPS) -Internet of Things (IoT) and Internet of Brain (IoB) -Artificial Intelligence -Smart Computing -Smart Design/Machine -Smart Sensing -Smart Information and Networks 3. Smart Energy and Thermal/Fluidic Science 4. Smart Chemistry and Materials
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