Hydrogeochemical characterization and precursor anomalies of hot springs in the North Tianshan orogen

The North Tianshan orogen consists of a series of thrust faults and is the most seismic region in China. In this paper, the characteristics of hot springs in the North Tianshan orogen are analyzed. Hydrochemical analysis of 13 hot springs and four mud volcanoes reveals that the cations of most hot springs are mainly Na⁺, while the anions are mainly Cl⁻.Atmospheric precipitation is the main recharge source for the hot springs in the study area, with recharge heights ranging from −9 to 2344 m. Heat storage analysis and trace element results showed deep fluid characteristics, which is consistent with deep circulation processes and regional extrusion pressure background. In addition, continuous measurements of six hot springs were conducted once every three days. The results showed that Cl⁻ and SO₄²⁻ concentration anomalies occurred before several earthquakes of M_L4.0 in the North Tianshan orogen. The hot springs SWQ, HTB, and WS, which have deeper circulation depths, show better responsiveness than X10, which has a shallow circulation depth. The deep circulation of hot springs increases fault sliding friction, which contributes to energy accumulation and strong seismogenesis, and participates in the seismogenesis process. Therefore, continuous monitoring of ion concentrations of deep-circulation hot springs can help identify effective precursor anomalies in the North Tianshan orogen.