中国降雨诱发滑坡降雨预警阈值及其空间分布

Hongqiang Dou , Rui Wang , Hao Wang , Wenbin Jian
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引用次数: 2

摘要

为了研究我国降雨诱发滑坡预警阈值的空间分布,选取了近20年来我国滑坡降雨阈值的相关文献。采用统计分析和可视化方法,系统分析了不同尺度降雨预警阈值的研究进展。以典型降雨强度-持续时间(I-D)阈值模型为研究对象,结合我国地理特征和20年平均年降雨量,刻画了我国降雨诱发滑坡预警阈值的空间分布。结果表明,我国降雨阈值(I-D曲线)的启发雨强系数α大致随着地形的减小而逐渐增大。此外,在一致的年降雨量条件下,标量指数β表现出与地形变化相对应的规律性变化。地形和降雨量是与降雨量阈值密切相关的两个主要因素。这项研究为研究中国降雨诱发滑坡的预警阈值建立了一个清晰的框架,并对开发更有效的降雨阈值模型具有重要的科学意义。
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Rainfall early warning threshold and its spatial distribution of rainfall-induced landslides in China

In order to investigate the spatial distribution of early warning threshold for landslide induced by rainfall in China, the literatures about rainfall thresholds of landslides in China in recent 20 years are selected. Statistical analysis and visualization methods were employed to systematically analyze the research progress of rainfall early warning thresholds at various scales. Taking the typical rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) threshold model as the research object, combined with the geographical characteristics of China and the average annual rainfall of 20 years, the spatial distribution of early warning thresholds for rainfall-induced landslide in China is depicted. The results show that the inspired rain intensity coefficient α of the rainfall threshold (I-D curve) in China roughly increases gradually with the decrease of topography. Moreover, under consistent annual rainfall conditions, the scalar index β exhibits regular changes corresponding to variations in terrain. Topography and rainfall are the two main factors strongly associated with the rainfall threshold. This research establishes a clear framework for studying the early warning thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in China and holds significant scientific implications for developing more effective rainfall threshold models.

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