在欧洲,极端气候正变得越来越频繁、同时发生和持续

Prajal Pradhan, Tobias Seydewitz, Bin Zhou, Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, Juergen P. Kropp
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引用次数: 3

摘要

随着全球变暖,许多极端气候现象变得更加频繁,经常同时发生,或连续几年反复发生。然而,只有有限的研究将这些极端气候的变化放在一起进行了调查。我们根据39个气候指数研究了过去70年(1950年至2019年)欧洲的这些变化,以确定气候极端热点和冷点。这些指数属于四个气候指数组:寒冷、炎热、干旱和降水。与研究期的前半期(1950–1984)相比,我们的大多数研究地点都面临着更频繁的极端高温,并且在下半期(1985–2019)连续几年发生。然而,在大多数地区,极端寒冷的次数已经减少。与此同时,一些地区,主要是地中海地区,面临着干旱的增加,而另一些地区,如东欧和北欧的部分地区,则经历了更强烈的降水。同一年,我们研究区域的几个地方也同时发生了两次或两次以上的极端寒冷、高温、干旱和降水。我们的研究强调,极端气候在欧洲变得越来越频繁、同时发生和持续。这些极端气候的变化与气候变化有关。因此,我们可以推断,减缓气候变化对于限制这些极端情况至关重要。
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Climate Extremes are Becoming More Frequent, Co-occurring, and Persistent in Europe

With global warming, many climate extremes are becoming more frequent, often co-occurring, or repeatedly occurring in consecutive years. However, only limited studies have investigated these changes of climate extremes together. We study these changes in Europe for the last seven decades (1950–2019) based on 39 climate indices to identify climate extreme hotspots and coldspots. These indices belong to the four climate index groups: cold, heat, drought, and precipitation. Compared to the first half of the study period (1950–1984), most of our study locations faced heat extremes that are more frequent and occurring in consecutive years in the second half (1985–2019). However, the number of cold extremes has decreased in most locations. Simultaneously, some locations, mainly the Mediterranean region, faced an increase in droughts while others, e.g., parts of Eastern Europe and Northern Europe, experienced more intense precipitation. Two or more of these cold, heat, drought, and precipitation extremes have also co-occurred in a few locations of our study area in the same year. Our study highlights that climate extremes are becoming more frequent, co-occurrent, and persistent in Europe. These changes in climate extremes are associated with climate change. Therefore, we could infer that climate change mitigation is crucial for limiting these extremes.

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