Climate-induced cyclical properties of regional wine production using a time-frequency approach in Douro and Minho Wine Regions

The impact of climate on wine production (WP) temporal cycles in Douro (DR) and Vinhos Verdes (VVR) wine regions for a period of about 80 years, characterized by strong technological trend and climate variability, was modelled. The cyclical properties of WP, and which cycles are determined by spring temperature (ST) and soil water during summer (SW), were identified. It was achieved by applying a time-frequency approach, which is based on Kalman filter in the time domain. The time-varying autoregressive model can explain more than 67% (DR) and 95% (VVR) of the WP’ variability and the integration of the ST and mainly SW increase the models’ reliability. The results were then transferred into the frequency domain, and can show that WP in both regions is characterized by two cycles close to 5-6 and 2.5 years around the long run trend. The ST and SW showed great capacity to explain the cyclicality of WP in the studied regions being the coherence temporarily much more stable in VVR than in the DR, where a shift of the relative importance away from ST to SW can be recognized. This could be an indicator of lower impact of the foreseen hot and dry climate scenarios on WP in the regions with a maritime climate, such as the VVR, compared with hot and dry wine regions. Despite the marked differences in the two studied regions on ecological, viticulture practices and technological trend, the modelling approach based on time-frequency proved to be an efficient tool to infer the impact of climate on the dynamics of cyclical properties of regional WP, foreseeing its generalized use in other regions. This modelling approach can be an important tool for planning in the wine industry as well as for mitigation strategies facing the scenarios that combine technological progress and climate change.