Ten Trends in Capability Planning for Defence and Security

Capability-based planning has become the gold standard for defence planning. It is increasingly understood as encompassing a broad range of abilities beyond just military materiel and personnel, evolving into a much wider range of factors. It has also helped NATO defence planners adapt forces to requirements rather than fit ends to means. But there is still more to be done to improve defence planning, not least understanding the challenge posed by ‘black swans’ and guarding against presentism.