Application of Choice Modeling for Understanding Wheat User Preferences in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia is the largest and fastest growing destination for global wheat exports and is projected to attract 27.6 Mt of wheat from Canada, the United States, Argentina, the Black Sea region, and Australia in 2019–2020. This article outlines how choice modeling can be applied to improve wheat breeding to ensure new varieties are better suited to end-user preferences in Southeast Asia. We describe a choice modeling study involving Southeast Asian wheat buyers and millers responsible for more than 70% of flour production in the region. Depending on the food produced from wheat flour, similarities and some differences in the trait preferences of wheat buyers and millers were revealed. The choice modeling approach illustrated here could be applied to other grains, other products, and other regions. The export of agricultural commodities, like wheat, involves a multitude of decisions by buyers and providers of these commodities. The provision of wheat for export, for example, first involves decisions by plant breeders as to which parental materials to use in crossing programs and then later deciding which traits are worth selecting for in advanced plant lines (5,20). In the competitive world of grain export, being able to offer buyers fit-for-purpose wheat is an advantage. This article shows how use of choice modeling can aid wheat breeders to make better decisions to ensure their wheat varieties are truly fit-for-purpose in Southeast Asia, globally the largest outlet for wheat exports (11). Although rice is a principal dietary staple (24) in Southeast Asia, a gradual dietary shift is underway in most Southeast Asian countries toward greater consumption of other grains, especially wheat (13). In many Southeast Asian countries, higher per capita incomes and continuing urbanization favor increased per capita consumption of wheat and a lesser role of rice in diets (4,27,28). However, Southeast Asian countries are climatically unsuited to wheat production, so they must rely on wheat imports to satisfy their wheat consumption needs. In Southeast Asia, wheat imports have risen from 1 Mt in 1961 to a projected 27.6 Mt in 2019–2020 (11). Wheat-based foods such as instant noodles have rapidly become popular. For example, wheat-based instant noodles were first introduced in Indonesia in the 1970s, yet it is now the second largest instant noodle market globally (behind China), accounting for almost 15% of global consumption of instant noodles (16,17). Indonesia is also the fourth largest per capita consumer of instant noodles globally. Such is the demand for wheat emanating from Southeast Asian countries that Southeast Asia is now the largest and fastest growing destination for wheat exports, attracting wheat from Canada, the United States, Argentina, the Black Sea region, and Australia. Indonesia, for example, is now the world’s second-largest importer of wheat. The logistics of wheat importation are well established, with wheat being an internationally traded commodity based on shipping contracts that specify the key required characteristics of the wheat cargo (e.g., moisture content, protein range, test weight, wheat class). Some contract characteristics, such as wheat class, are a proxy for a bundle of wheat quality characteristics required for particular end products (6). Wheat quality is a complex issue (21,26). After being transformed into flour, wheat can be used to produce diverse end products ranging from breads to pastas, noodles, dumplings, cakes, pastries, and biscuits (cookies). Each end product, however, requires particular flour qualities usually derived from the blending wheat flours with different qualities, with the expression of wheat quality in any flour arising from the complex interplay of wheat plant genetics, the climate in the country of origin, and the grain processing systems used in the importing country. Often, wheat quality is approximated by indicators such as wheat class, grain hardness, grain protein content, test weight, falling number measurements, and moisture content—all of which are incorporated in shipping contract specifications. However, almost all shipping contracts incompletely specify the grain functionality requirements of the end user. Rather than rely on limited indicators of wheat quality, as specified in trade contracts, it is possible to more directly and accurately identify the traits of wheat quality preferred by key wheat users when making particular end products. More complete and accurate knowledge of the trait preferences of end users can facilitate the decision-making of wheat breeders, who are charged with assembling a mix of traits in new varieties that will offer benefits to farmers and those subsequently reliant on that wheat to produce various end products. This issue is the focus of this article. Specifically, we identify what quality attributes are most valued by wheat buyers and milling technicians in major Southeast Asian markets when their end purpose is to make particular bread or noodle products. Objective information on their wheat preferences was collected through choice modeling experiments. More accurately, identifying end-user preferences and relaying that information back to wheat breeders can increase the efficiency and effectiveness of the wheat exporting country’s response to Southeast Asian end-user needs. An implication for food producers in Southeast Asia is that they can share in the efficiency gains of better decisionmaking that more accurately matches the supply of wheat with desired qualities to meet the needs of end users. Application of Choice Modeling for Understanding Wheat User Preferences in Southeast Asia1 Ross Kingwell2 and Chris Carter3 1 This research was funded by the Grains R&D Corporation (GRDC). 2 University of Western Australia and Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre. E-mail: ross.kingwell@aegic.org.au 3 Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre. E-mail: chris.carter@aegic.org.au https://doi.org/10.1094/CFW-65-4-0056 © 2020 Cereals & Grains Association CEREAL FOODS WORLD, SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2020, VOL. 65, NO. 5 / DOI: https://doi.org/10.1094/CFW-65-5-0056