2012年6月北美Derecho:在云分辨尺度上评估区域和全球气候模拟系统的测试平台

IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Pub Date : 2023-04-07 DOI:10.1029/2022MS003358
W. Liu, P. A. Ullrich, J. Li, C. Zarzycki, P. M. Caldwell, L. R. Leung, Y. Qian
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引用次数: 3

摘要

在本文中,我们介绍了一个测试平台,利用2012年6月北美derecho的后预报来评估和比较云解析尺度上的气候模拟系统。为了验证其在模型比对中的实用性,将该试验台应用于两个模型:网格间距为6.5、3.25和1.625 km的区域精细简单云分辨E3SM大气模型(SCREAM)和网格间距为3.2和1.6 km的天气研究与预报(WRF)模型。我们发现仿真结果对初始条件(ic),初始化时间和模型配置高度敏感,其中快速刷新的ic产生最佳仿真。随着水平网格间距的细化,两种模型都有了显著的改进。虽然在两个模型中都发现了大约2小时的传播延迟,但在1.625公里处的尖叫很好地模拟了观测到的弓形回波结构,并预测了超过30米/秒的强地面阵风。相比之下,WRF很难产生超过25 m/s的地面风,WRF的阵风比SCREAM低42%-46%。WRF对云顶温度和范围的模拟偏差较小,但对降水强度的估计过高。两种模式都能很好地再现观测到的向外长波辐射空间分布(Pearson相关系数>0.88),但是,与NEXRAD观测相比,模拟的复合雷达反射率>40 dBZ的区域通常更大,降水面积低估了约47%。
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The June 2012 North American Derecho: A Testbed for Evaluating Regional and Global Climate Modeling Systems at Cloud-Resolving Scales

In this paper, we introduce a testbed for evaluating and comparing climate modeling systems at cloud resolving scales using hindcasts of the June 2012 North American derecho. To demonstrate its utility for model intercomparison, the testbed is applied to two models: the regionally-refined Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) at 6.5, 3.25 and 1.625 km grid spacing and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 3.2 and 1.6 km grid spacing. We find the simulation results to be highly sensitive to the initial conditions (ICs), initialization time, and model configurations, with ICs from the Rapid Refresh producing the best simulation. Significant improvement is identified in both models as horizontal grid spacing is refined. While a propagation delay of approximately 2 hr is found in both models, SCREAM at 1.625 km simulates the observed bow echo structure of the derecho well and predicts strong surface gusts that exceed 30 m/s. In comparison, WRF has difficulty producing surface wind over 25 m/s, with wind gusts in WRF 42%–46% lower than in SCREAM. However, WRF has a lower bias in simulating cloud top temperature and extent, but overestimates precipitation intensity. Both models reproduce the observed outgoing longwave radiation spatial patterns well (Pearson correlation >0.88), but, compared with NEXRAD observations, simulate generally larger areas of composite radar reflectivity >40 dBZ and underestimate the precipitating area by ∼47%.

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来源期刊
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
11.40
自引率
11.80%
发文量
241
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES) is committed to advancing the science of Earth systems modeling by offering high-quality scientific research through online availability and open access licensing. JAMES invites authors and readers from the international Earth systems modeling community. Open access. Articles are available free of charge for everyone with Internet access to view and download. Formal peer review. Supplemental material, such as code samples, images, and visualizations, is published at no additional charge. No additional charge for color figures. Modest page charges to cover production costs. Articles published in high-quality full text PDF, HTML, and XML. Internal and external reference linking, DOI registration, and forward linking via CrossRef.
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