SIR疾病非性和性联合传播途径的数学模型

IF 3 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES 传染病建模(英文) Pub Date : 2016-09-26 DOI:10.1101/087189
Joel C. Miller
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引用次数: 96

摘要

寨卡病毒和埃博拉等疾病的出现,突显出有必要了解性传播在主要以非性传播途径传播的疾病传播中的作用。在本文中,我们开发了一些低维模型,这些模型适用于一系列假设,即如果一种疾病通过性接触网络与其他一些传播机制(如直接接触或载体)相结合进行性传播,那么它将如何传播。推导出的方程为大种群极限下相应的模拟动力学提供了精确的预测。
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Mathematical models of SIR disease spread with combined non-sexual and sexual transmission routes
The emergence of diseases such as Zika and Ebola has highlighted the need to understand the role of sexual transmission in the spread of diseases with a primarily non-sexual transmission route. In this paper we develop a number of low-dimensional models which are appropriate for a range of assumptions for how a disease will spread if it has sexual transmission through a sexual contact network combined with some other transmission mechanism, such as direct contact or vectors. The equations derived provide exact predictions for the dynamics of the corresponding simulations in the large population limit.
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