1949- 1950年人口年鉴,第二期

L. Stein
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Various sources of data are used, but for a number of the tables special questionnaires were answered by government and administrative departments. Undoubtedly the population data thus presented constitute the most comprehensive and up-to-date body of knowledge at present available. Moreover, this issue includes in the text a chapter which analyses regional population trends and attempts some interpretation of them. In addition to the basic tables of the first issue, several new tables are included, some of which will be repeated annually, and others every five years. The subject of special emphasis in this issue, that of marriage and fertility, is one of particular interest to the western countries with their ageing populations. The special tables here presented cover a wider field than the customary summaries of marriage and fertility rates: there are tables of fertility rates by age of father, of births by age of mother and order of birth, and of information concerning surviving children, proportions of children under 5 years of age, and the like. In such a large array of tables from countries differing so widely in their methods of collecting and recording data, it is hardly surprising that discrepancies become apparentdue in some cases to the divergence of ideas and definitions in different countries, and in others to inaccuracies of all kinds. These irregularities are discussed in the text at the appropriate points, and certain steps have been taken to minimize them; moreover, several devices are introduced to safeguard against misinterpretation of the data. One of these devices in connection with population data, takes the form of a code describing the type of estimate from which the data were obtained and indicating the reliability of the estimate. Nevertheless, the non-comparability of figures for many countries detracts to some extent from the value of certain comparisons. In every table curious differences between countries emerge, and it is important to know whether these represent real differences or whether the curious points are only the results of inaccuracies in figures or different definitions of categories. For instance, Table 6, which gives the percentages of unmarried men and women in each age-sex group, reveals a very wide range of differences. France apparently has very small proportions of single men and women at the higher ages, whilst Ireland stands out as having large proportions of unmarried men and women at all ages and particularly at the higher ages and above 65 years. 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引用次数: 0

摘要

《人口年鉴》第一期的出版开创了一个先例,为世界上几乎每一个国家提供全面和可靠的人口数据。收集了截至1947年及包括1947年在内的最可靠和最新的人口、死亡率、出生和移徙数据,从而可以对每个国家进行最新的描述并比较不同国家的特征。《年鉴》的第二期延续了第一期的主要描述,并进一步扩大了第一期所涵盖的领域。它提供了截至1948年,在许多情况下截至1949年的人口构成、经济特征、死亡率和跨国界移徙的一些基本表格。使用了各种来源的数据,但对于一些表格,政府和行政部门回答了特殊的问卷。毫无疑问,这样提出的人口数据构成了目前可获得的最全面和最新的知识体系。此外,这个问题的案文中有一章分析了区域人口趋势,并试图对此作出一些解释。除了第一期的基本表之外,还列入了几个新表,其中一些表将每年重复一次,另一些表将每五年重复一次。这一问题特别强调的主题,即婚姻和生育问题,是人口老龄化的西方国家特别关心的问题之一。这里提出的特别表格所涵盖的范围比一般的婚姻和生育率摘要更广:其中有按父亲年龄分列的生育率、按母亲年龄和出生顺序分列的生育率,以及关于未亡子女、5岁以下子女比例等资料的表格。各国收集和记录数据的方法差异如此之大,在如此多的表格中,由于不同国家的观念和定义的分歧,以及由于各种不准确,差异变得明显,这一点也不奇怪。文中在适当的地方讨论了这些不正常情况,并采取了某些步骤尽量减少这些不正常情况;此外,还引入了一些设备来防止对数据的误解。其中一种与人口数据有关的方法是采用代码的形式,说明获得数据的估计类型,并表明估计的可靠性。然而,许多国家的数字不可比较,在某种程度上减损了某些比较的价值。在每个表格中,国家之间都会出现奇怪的差异,重要的是要知道这些差异是否代表了真正的差异,还是这些奇怪的点只是数字不准确或类别定义不同的结果。例如,表6给出了每个年龄-性别组中未婚男女的百分比,显示了非常大的差异。法国的大龄单身男女比例显然很小,而爱尔兰的大龄未婚男女比例特别高,尤其是大龄和65岁以上的未婚男女。其他表格披露了其他有趣的点:表5、表7和表8,其中涉及婚姻状况和按年龄和生育人数分列的妇女
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Demographic Yearbook 1949-50, Second Issue
With the publication of the first issue of the Demographic Yearbook, a precedent was established in the presentation of comprehensive and sound demographic data for almost every country in the world. The most reliable and recent figures on population, mortality, natality, and migration were collected for the years up to and including 1947, making possible up-to-date descriptions of each country and comparisons of characteristics in different countries. This second issue of the Yearbook continues the main descriptions and further enlarges the field covered in the first issue. It gives a number of basic tables of population composition, economic characteristics, mortality rates, and migration across national boundaries for the years up to 1948 and in many cases up to 1949. Various sources of data are used, but for a number of the tables special questionnaires were answered by government and administrative departments. Undoubtedly the population data thus presented constitute the most comprehensive and up-to-date body of knowledge at present available. Moreover, this issue includes in the text a chapter which analyses regional population trends and attempts some interpretation of them. In addition to the basic tables of the first issue, several new tables are included, some of which will be repeated annually, and others every five years. The subject of special emphasis in this issue, that of marriage and fertility, is one of particular interest to the western countries with their ageing populations. The special tables here presented cover a wider field than the customary summaries of marriage and fertility rates: there are tables of fertility rates by age of father, of births by age of mother and order of birth, and of information concerning surviving children, proportions of children under 5 years of age, and the like. In such a large array of tables from countries differing so widely in their methods of collecting and recording data, it is hardly surprising that discrepancies become apparentdue in some cases to the divergence of ideas and definitions in different countries, and in others to inaccuracies of all kinds. These irregularities are discussed in the text at the appropriate points, and certain steps have been taken to minimize them; moreover, several devices are introduced to safeguard against misinterpretation of the data. One of these devices in connection with population data, takes the form of a code describing the type of estimate from which the data were obtained and indicating the reliability of the estimate. Nevertheless, the non-comparability of figures for many countries detracts to some extent from the value of certain comparisons. In every table curious differences between countries emerge, and it is important to know whether these represent real differences or whether the curious points are only the results of inaccuracies in figures or different definitions of categories. For instance, Table 6, which gives the percentages of unmarried men and women in each age-sex group, reveals a very wide range of differences. France apparently has very small proportions of single men and women at the higher ages, whilst Ireland stands out as having large proportions of unmarried men and women at all ages and particularly at the higher ages and above 65 years. Other points of interest are disclosed in other tables: from Tables 5, 7, and 8, which refer to marriage status and to women by age and number of
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Statistical theory of prophylactic and therapeutic trials. II. Methods of operational advantage. Cohort analysis of fertility in England and Wales, 1939-50. Stature of Scotsmen aged 18 to 40 years in 1941. Incidence of neurosis related to maternal age and birth order. Factors influencing sex differences in mortality from respiratory tuberculosis in England and Wales.
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