Environmental drivers of beluga whales distribution in a changing climate: A case study of summering aggregations in the Mackenzie Estuary and Tarium Niryutait Marine Protected Area

During summer, the Eastern Beaufort Sea beluga whale population aggregates in the waters of the Mackenzie Estuary and Tarium Niryutait Marine Protected Area (TN MPA). Guided by local communities’ priorities, this study aimed to better understand beluga summer habitat selection and to examine whether shifts in beluga distribution are expected under a changing climate. We used a resource selection function (RSF) based on aerial survey data and satellite remote sensing images to estimate the likelihood of beluga presence as a function of environmental conditions. The RSF revealed belugas selected warm and turbid waters, with suspended particulate matter concentrations and sea surface temperatures ranging above average estuarine values. These specific conditions support hypotheses on the ecological roles of estuaries for belugas such as providing a thermal advantage for their calves or for belugas epidermal moulting. Using a diachronic analysis, we found a distribution shift towards coastal and inshore waters, areas already experiencing effects of climate change. Thus, the current distribution may reflect beluga responses to a changing climate, selecting warmer and more turbid areas. Our finding provides insight into current and evolving beluga habitat and habitat selection under a changing climate, that may help inform beluga management in the TN MPA.