阿尔及利亚北部年最大日降雨量的变率和趋势

IF 1 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS International Journal of Geophysics Pub Date : 2016-07-27 DOI:10.1155/2016/6820397
A. N. Ghenim, A. Megnounif
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引用次数: 25

摘要

对覆盖阿尔及利亚北部的35个气象站的日降雨量数据集进行了长达43年的研究,这些数据记录于20世纪70年代以后。研究了年最大日降雨量(AMDR)时间序列的变率和趋势及其对年降雨量(AR)的贡献。该系列的分析基于统计特征、Burn的季节性程序、Mann-Kendall检验和线性回归技术。AMDR对AR分析的贡献是通过Buishand试验和双质量曲线技术进行的。AMDR特征具有较强的时间不规则性,11月和12月发生频率较宽,10月强度最大。观测到的现象具有不规则性,不存在主导季节,极端事件在一年中的任何时间都可能发生。AMDR趋势显示,35个站点中只有6个站点有显著趋势。对于其他电台来说,没有明显的趋势。这一结果得到了线性回归分析的证实。相反,57%的样地AMDR对年总贡献呈显著上升趋势,增长率高达50%。
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Variability and Trend of Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall in Northern Algeria
The daily rainfall dataset of 35 weather stations covering the north of Algeria was studied for a period up to 43 years, recorded after 1970s. The variability and trends in annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) time series and their contributions in annual rainfall (AR) were investigated. The analysis of the series was based on statistical characteristics, Burn’s seasonality procedure, Mann-Kendall test, and linear regression technique. The contribution of the AMDR to AR analysis was subjected to both the Buishand test and the double mass curve technique. The AMDR characteristics reveal a strong temporal irregularity and have a wide frequency of occurrence in the months of November and December while the maximum intensity occurred in October. The observed phenomenon was so irregular that there was no dominant season and the occurrence of extreme event can arrive at any time of the year. The AMDR trends showed that only six of 35 stations have significant trend. For other stations, no clear trend was highlighted. This result was confirmed by the linear regression procedure. On the contrary, the contribution of AMDR in annual totals exhibited a significant increasing trend for 57% of the sites studied with a growth rate of up to 50%.
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来源期刊
International Journal of Geophysics
International Journal of Geophysics GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS-
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
12
审稿时长
21 weeks
期刊介绍: International Journal of Geophysics is a peer-reviewed, Open Access journal that publishes original research articles as well as review articles in all areas of theoretical, observational, applied, and computational geophysics.
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