外债对经济增长的影响:以巴基斯坦为例

F. Shahzad, Ahsan Zia, N. Ahmed, Zeeshan Fareed, Bushra Zulfiqar
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引用次数: 12

摘要

自20世纪80年代以来,巴基斯坦不断增加的债务和偿债问题受到决策者和经济学家的关注和考虑。这项研究的另一个目的是审计和调查外债改革对巴基斯坦经济发展和增长的影响。为了寻找研究的目标,五个变量即增长,外债还本付息,储蓄,净出口,外国直接投资被集中在它们与国内生产总值或巴基斯坦经济发展的实际联系上。年度面板数据取自1980年至2013年期间的世界银行源指标,并通过最小二乘多元回归模型进行处理。主要可变外债对因变量GDP有显著的负面影响,因此得出的结论是,巴基斯坦应该选择债务减免,必须邀请外国直接投资,但不要太多,因为他们的超载可能会损害经济。调整储蓄(ADS)与GDP呈极显著正相关,表明储蓄习惯对经济增长具有极大的促进作用。出口基本上对经济有帮助,所以必须提高出口。外债对增长的影响相当不利,因此必须采取措施消除外债,以促进经济增长。
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Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth: a Case Study of Pakistan
Since 1980s, the mounting debts and debt payment service of Pakistan due focus and consideration from the Policy makers and economists. This study was additionally done to audit and investigate the effect of external debt overhauling on the development and growth of Pakistan's economy. To hunt the target of research, five variables i.e. Growth, external debt servicing, saving, net export, Foreign Direct Investment were taken to focus their fact association with the GDP or development of the Pakistan's economy. Annual panel data was taken from the source World Bank indicator from the period of 1980 to 2013 and was manipulated through least square multiple regression models. The main variable external debt has significantly negative impact on dependent variable GDP so it‟s concluded that Pakistan should go for the option of debt forgiveness and must invite FDI but not much as their overloading may hurt the economy. Adjusting saving (ADS) highly significant positive relation with GDP reveals that habit of saving extremely boost up economy growth. Exports is basically good to helping hand for economy so they must be lifted up. The impact of external debt is quite hostile on growth so steps must be taken to abolish it in order to growth of economy.
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