民主与专制国家财政政策的可持续性

Pub Date : 2015-09-30 DOI:10.12924/CIS2015.03010001
Stefan Wurster
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文试图通过应用各种绩效指标(信用价值、支付违约、国债、外国资产)来确定民主和独裁统治国家的财政可持续性记录,并阐明一个政权的特征对一个国家的巩固努力有什么影响。该研究确定了两个关键发现。虽然在过去,民主国家显然更容易保持其信用地位和偿付能力,避免政府破产,但在减少国债和外债方面,民主国家已不再具有类似的优势。为什么民主国家,尽管他们的安排对公共利益和正当程序很敏感,却发现很难避免将债务转移给后代,采取削减措施和提供足够的财政远见,原则上可以解释为硬币的另一面,即高度存在导向的利益,甚至通过短暂的“民主特定时间范围”进一步提升。
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Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Democracies and Autocracies
This paper tries to identify the fiscal sustainability record of democratically and autocratically governed countries by applying various performance indicators (credit worthiness, payment defaults, national debt, foreign assets) and also to clarify what effect the characteristics of a regime have on consolidation efforts in a country. The study identifies two key findings. While in the past, democracies have clearly found it easier to preserve their credit standing and solvency and to avoid government bankruptcy, a similar advantage can no longer be detected for democracies in terms of reducing national debt and foreign debts. Why democracies, in spite of their arrangements with a sensitivity for the public good and for due process, are finding it so difficult to avoid shifting their debts to future generations, to undertake cutback measures and to provide sufficient financial foresight, can in principle be interpreted as the other side of the coin, namely highly presence-oriented interests boosted even further through the short "democracy-specific time horizon".
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