保加利亚COVID-19的数据分析和Sir建模

Q3 Mathematics International Journal of Applied Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.12732/ijam.v33i6.10

M. Ivanova, L. Dospatliev

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引用次数: 7

摘要

新型人类冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)也被称为COVID-19，是21世纪最大的公共卫生挑战。本文的目的是提供保加利亚COVID-19病例的数据分析，并使用SIR(易感-感染-恢复)模型对其传播进行建模。我们使用统计软件R中的COVID-19分析包提取保加利亚COVID-19的时间序列数据(日期为2020年3月8日至2020年11月24日)。根据SIR模型的数据分析和预测，保加利亚在新冠肺炎大流行开始61天后(2020年5月13日左右)达到最大感染人数，约为1 298446e+05人，基本复制数R0为1 46;这意味着平均一名感染者在感染期间感染了146名易感个体。我们认为，对保加利亚COVID-19病例进行的数据分析以及SIR模型获得的结果将有助于保加利亚政府限制病毒的传播©2020学术出版物

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DATA ANALYTICS AND SIR MODELING OF COVID-19 IN BULGARIA

The Novel Human Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) also well-known as COVID-19 is the greatest public health challenge of the 21st century The aims of this article were to provide data analytic of the COVID-19 cases in Bulgaria and to modeling their spread using SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model We used the covid19 analytics package from the statistical software R in extracting time-series data of COVID-19 in Bulgaria (dating March 8, 2020 to November 24, 2020), in presenting the data analysis as well as forecast the maximum number of infected people, peak time and the basic reproduction number based on SIR model As per SIR model, the maximum number of infected people is reached after 61 days of starting of COVID-19 pandemic in Bulgaria (around May 13, 2020) with about 1 298446e+05 infections The basic reproduction number R0 was found to 1 46, which means that on average an infectious individual infects 1 46 susceptible individuals during his infection period We believe that performed data analytics of COVID-19 cases in Bulgaria and the obtained results of the SIR model will help government of Bulgaria when restricting the spread of the virus © 2020 Academic Publications

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来源期刊

International Journal of Applied Mathematics Mathematics-Mathematics (all)

CiteScore

1.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The journal is peer-reviewed and publishes carefully selected original research papers on all scopes of mathematics and its applications: combinatorics, design and configurations, graph theory, fractals, lattices, ordered algebraic structures, real functions, measure and integration, functions of complex variable, potential theory, special functions, fractional calculus, operational calculus and integral transforms, dynamical systems in their broadest sense (covering ODEs, all kinds of PDEs, FDEs, difference equations, functional equations), approximation and expansion, integral equations, operator theory, calculus of variations, optimal control, optimization, applied differential geometry, probability theory and stochastic processes, statistics, numerical analysis, computer science, mechanics of particle and systems, mechanics of solids, fluid mechanics, classical thermodynamics, mathematical methods in economics, operations research, programming, mathematical biology, systems theory, information and communication, circuits.