2020年3月至2021年3月东爪哇Covid-19区域病例百分比的动态随时间空间自相关检测(印度尼西亚)

IF 2.3 0 GEOGRAPHY Regional Statistics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.15196/rs120302
Rahma Fitriani, D. Darmanto, Z. F. Pusdiktasari
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引用次数: 2

摘要

Covid-19地区病例百分比是跨越时空动态相互作用的区域变量之一。它具有一定的时间趋势,在某个时间点上,可能会形成具有相似值的区域簇。由于Covid-19是一种传染病,区域病例百分比在区域之间也表现出空间依赖性。时间趋势表明空间相关性可能存在时滞,在某一时间点分析的空间相关性可能无法检测到。在东爪哇的38个地区观察到这种情况。它对空间依赖的本质产生了不正确的印象,导致政策制定不当。为了更准确地捕捉空间相互作用,本研究将变量的时间依赖动态性质纳入一组空间面板数据的Moran's I指数的公式中。通过仿真研究验证了所提指标的准确性,特别是在同时期空间自相关程度较高的情况下。该指数还成功地检测了东爪哇地区Covid-19病例百分比的滞后空间自相关性。它提供了对该疾病在该省传播的更好理解和政策建议。
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A dynamic-time dependent spatial autocorrelation detection for East Java's Covid-19 regional percent of cases, March 2020-March 2021 (Indonesia)
Covid-19 regional percent of cases is one of the regional variables that dynamically interact across space and time. It exhibits a time trend, and at one point in time, it may form clusters of regions with similar values. Since Covid-19 is an infectious disease, the regional percent of cases also exhibits spatial dependence across regions. The time trend indicates the possible time lag of the spatial dependence, and the spatial dependence analysed at one point in time may be undetected. This situation was observed in the 38 regions of East Java. It gives an incorrect impression of the nature of spatial dependence, leading to an improper policy formulation. To capture the spatial interaction more accurately, this study accommodates the time-dependent dynamic nature of the variable into the formulation of the Moran's I index for a set of spatial panel data. A simulation study is conducted to confirm the accuracy of the proposed index, especially when the degree of contemporaneous spatial autocorrelation is high. The proposed index also succeeds in detecting the time-lagged spatial autocorrelation of East Java's Covid-19 regional percent of cases. It provides a better understanding and policy recommendations regarding the spread of this disease in this province.
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来源期刊
Regional Statistics
Regional Statistics GEOGRAPHY-
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
52.20%
发文量
28
期刊介绍: The periodical welcomes studies, research and conference reports, book reviews, discussion articles reflecting on our former articles. The periodical welcomes articles from the following areas: regional statistics, regional science, social geography, regional planning, sociology, geographical information science Goals of the journal: high-level studies in the field of regional analyses, to encourage the exchange of views and discussion among researchers in the area of regional researches.
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