Anatoly Kilyachkov, L. Chaldaeva, Nikolay Kilyachkov
{"title":"用离散动态模型描述世界GDP增长率变化","authors":"Anatoly Kilyachkov, L. Chaldaeva, Nikolay Kilyachkov","doi":"10.15208/BEH.2017.06","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The rate of world GDP is changing periodically. A discrete dynamic model (DDM) describes this process. The model is based on the assumption that the global economy has certain “inertia”. This allows us to describe the rate of change of global GDP in the subsequent year as a function of its change in the preceding year. This function can be approximated by using a finite number of terms of its Taylor series. A methodologically more rigorous approach is proposed for approximating the rate of world GDP change on non-overlapping time intervals. Radii of convergence were determined for approximating polynomials for these time ranges. Studies have shown the dependence of the shape of the radius of convergence from the nature of the convergence. DDM has a practical significance because it allows identifying the change in a character of economic dynamics without prior assumptions about the factors driving this trend.","PeriodicalId":43750,"journal":{"name":"Business and Economic Horizons","volume":"13 1","pages":"77-96"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Description of world GDP rate changes by using discrete dynamic model\",\"authors\":\"Anatoly Kilyachkov, L. Chaldaeva, Nikolay Kilyachkov\",\"doi\":\"10.15208/BEH.2017.06\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The rate of world GDP is changing periodically. A discrete dynamic model (DDM) describes this process. The model is based on the assumption that the global economy has certain “inertia”. This allows us to describe the rate of change of global GDP in the subsequent year as a function of its change in the preceding year. This function can be approximated by using a finite number of terms of its Taylor series. A methodologically more rigorous approach is proposed for approximating the rate of world GDP change on non-overlapping time intervals. Radii of convergence were determined for approximating polynomials for these time ranges. Studies have shown the dependence of the shape of the radius of convergence from the nature of the convergence. DDM has a practical significance because it allows identifying the change in a character of economic dynamics without prior assumptions about the factors driving this trend.\",\"PeriodicalId\":43750,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Business and Economic Horizons\",\"volume\":\"13 1\",\"pages\":\"77-96\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2017-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"3\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Business and Economic Horizons\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.15208/BEH.2017.06\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Business and Economic Horizons","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.15208/BEH.2017.06","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Description of world GDP rate changes by using discrete dynamic model
The rate of world GDP is changing periodically. A discrete dynamic model (DDM) describes this process. The model is based on the assumption that the global economy has certain “inertia”. This allows us to describe the rate of change of global GDP in the subsequent year as a function of its change in the preceding year. This function can be approximated by using a finite number of terms of its Taylor series. A methodologically more rigorous approach is proposed for approximating the rate of world GDP change on non-overlapping time intervals. Radii of convergence were determined for approximating polynomials for these time ranges. Studies have shown the dependence of the shape of the radius of convergence from the nature of the convergence. DDM has a practical significance because it allows identifying the change in a character of economic dynamics without prior assumptions about the factors driving this trend.
期刊介绍:
The Business and Economic Horizons (BEH) is an international peer-reviewed journal that publishes high quality theoretical, empirical, and review papers covering the broad spectrum of research in areas of economics, business, management, and finance. The journal aim is to bridge the gap between the theory and the observed data in these constantly developing domains. BEH Editorial Board welcomes the high-quality original research articles and review papers that verify the well-grounded and the emerging theories by employing the econometric, statistical methods or other relevant empirical methods in theoretical and applied economic analysis. BEH does not discriminate articles utilizing the non-mainstream approaches such as experimental research, institutional analysis, other variations of heterodox and developmental economic studies. Therefore, the submissions in any field of micro- and macroeconomics, business ethics, economic policy or finance are appropriate for this journal. We hope, the provided contributions will help to understand the contemporary challenges faced by the private and public sector and will establish an international forum of empirical research.