Development of an agent-based model for the analysis of the effect of consumer panic buying on supply chain disruption due to a disaster

The present paper is an effort to introduce the modeling architecture of analyzing the response of a supply chain of bottled water due to consumer panic buying triggered by a large-scale natural disaster. An agent-based system is used to model a simplistic consumer purchase model and a supply chain model. Disaster prompts panic buying among the consumers, which disturbs the supply chain. The strategies used to control the excess demand such as limiting sales per person is considered to understand the effect on the supply chain. A preliminary study of the response of the supply chain due to the disaster and its consequences are presented in this paper.