Potential distribution of the critically endangered dragonfly Libellula angelina (Odonata: Libellulidae) under shared socio-economic pathways

Libellula angelina is an endangered dragonfly species that is native to East Asia. Recently, their population has become severely reduced through habitat loss. To protect L. angelina populations, we need to understand which factors determine their distribution and how their potential habitats will change in the future. In this study, the habitat preference of L. angelina was identified through field surveys, and the potential distribution of L. angelina and the impact of integrated climate–land cover changes were simulated using the MaxEnt model. Furthermore, the wetland loss scenario was applied to areas where the current trend in wetland loss will continue in the future. The field survey identified that L. angelina prefers small inland wetlands: permanent freshwater, ponds; permanent rivers, ponds; irrigated land; and estuarine waters. From the MaxEnt results, altitude was the variable with the greatest contribution and distance from wetlands was the most unique variable. MaxEnt described the geographic pattern of occurrences under the current climate well, with few areas requiring any further survey. In the future projection, the potential habitat area was increased by up to 48.8% and 30.6% in the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. However, potential habitat loss was expected if wetlands continue to decline as they have done in the last 20 years. The wetland loss scenario resulted in potential habitat losses of 1.9%–2.3% and 4.5%–6.1% in the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Therefore, to protect L. angelina populations we must minimize the loss of current populations, secure wetlands and strengthen the connectivity between wetlands.