畜牧社区的牲畜营销决策:肯尼亚巴林戈地区偷牛的影响

Kaimba George Kinyua, Guliye Abdi Yakub, Njehia Bernard Kamau, H. Bett
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引用次数: 9

摘要

该研究试图确定牧民是否将牲畜出售作为一种保险形式,以防止盗牛商业化,在这种情况下,结构良好和管理良好的卡特尔组织对牧民进行更激烈和频繁的牛袭击,以及他们的决定如何影响他们的牛群规模。这项研究是在肯尼亚的巴林戈牧民社区进行的。采用多阶段抽样方法,选取110户家庭为样本,采用问卷调查方式进行访谈。采用二元概率模型和普通最小二乘法进行分析。结果表明,盗牛行为,特别是在其掠食性状态下,显著地促进了牲畜的自发销售,即使在非常低的价格下,这本身可以被描述为突袭。结果进一步表明,因偷牛而损失的牲畜数量主导了牲畜销售,从而减少了畜群规模和可供销售的牲畜数量。偷牛造成的不安全,加上糟糕的销售基础设施,使得买卖双方都无法进入市场,导致牧民更加贫困和依赖。因此,畜牧业已成为痛苦之源,而不是生计之源。
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Livestock Marketing Decisions Among Pastoral Communities: The Influence of Cattle Rustling in Baringo District, Kenya
The study sought to determine whether pastoralists have resorted to sale of livestock as a form of insurance against commercialization of cattle rustling in which well structured and managed cartels have organised more intense and frequent cattle raids on pastoralist, and how their decisions have affected their herd size. The study was conducted among the pastoral Baringo community of Kenya. A sample size of 110 households was selected using multi-stage sampling procedures and interviewed using a questionnaire. Binary Probit Model and Ordinary Least Squares were used in the analysis. Results indicated that cattle rustling, particularly in its predatory state significantly contributes to spontaneous sale of livestock even under very low prices that in themselves could be described as raiding. The results further indicated that the number of livestock lost through cattle rustling dominated livestock sale and hence reduced herd size and the numbers of livestock available for sale. The insecurity generated by cattle rustling, coupled with the poor marketing infrastructure make market inaccessible by both buyers and sellers, resulting to increased poverty and dependency amongst the pastoralists. Consequently, pastoralism has become a source of misery rather than source of livelihood.
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