猴痘流行的数学建模与最优控制策略

A. El Mansouri, I. Smouni, B. Khajji, A. Labzai, M. Belam
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在这项研究中,我们提出了一个离散时间数学模型(SEIQR)来描述猴痘在人群中的动态。将研究人群分为易感人群(S)、暴露人群(E)、感染人群(I)、隔离人群(Q)和恢复人群(R)五个区域。同时,我们提出了对抗该流行病传播的最佳策略。在这个意义上,我们使用三种控制方法,它们代表:1)通过媒体、民间社会和教育提高弱势群体的意识;(二)在家隔离,必要时在医院隔离;3)鼓励易感人群接种疫苗。为了描述这些最优控制,我们应用了庞特里亚金极大值原理。利用Matlab对优化系统进行了数值求解。因此,所得结果证实了所提优化方法的有效性。
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Mathematical modeling and optimal control strategy for the monkeypox epidemic
In this study, we propose a discrete time mathematical model (SEIQR) that describes the dynamics of monkeypox within a human population. The studied population is divided into five compartments: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), quarantined (Q), and recovered (R). Also, we propose an optimal strategy to fight against the spread of this epidemic. In this sense we use three controls which represent: 1) the awarness of vulnerable people through the media, civil society and education; 2) the quarantine of infected persons at home or, if required, in hospital; 3) encouraging of vaccination of susceptible persons. To characterize these optimal controls, we apply the Pontryagin's maximum principle. The optimality system is solved numerically using Matlab. Therefore, the obtained results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed optimization approach.
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来源期刊
Mathematical Modeling and Computing
Mathematical Modeling and Computing Computer Science-Computational Theory and Mathematics
CiteScore
1.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
54
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