Uchenna Michael, L. Omenyi, Elebute Kafayat, E. Nwaeze, Offia Akachukwu, G. Ozoigbo, Monday Ekhator
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引用次数: 2
摘要
。建立并分析了猴痘病毒(MPXV)传播动力学的区室数学模型。该模型将适当的监测和接触者追踪作为有效的控制措施。得到了模型的局部和全局平衡状态,并对其进行了分析。得到了有效繁殖数R m,并以R m作为传播阈值,研究了模型参数的敏感性。当感染成为地方病时,R m (cid:117) 1,模型呈现向后分叉,但R m < 1,这意味着干预措施倾向于抑制MPXV。数值模拟说明了我们的发现和讨论。我们的研究结果表明,在没有完美疫苗的情况下,监测和接触者追踪对遏制MPXV是有效的。
Monkeypox mathematical model with surveillance as control
. A compartmental mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of the monkeypox virus (MPXV) was developed and analyzed. The model incorporates proper surveillance and contact tracing as effective controls. The equilibrium states of the model were obtained and analyzed both locally and globally. The effective reproduction number, R m was obtained and the sensitivity of the model parameters were studied using R m as the threshold of transmission. When the infection becomes endemic, R m (cid:117) 1 , the model exhibits a backward bifurcation but R m < 1 which means that the interventions tend to MPXV containment. Numerical simulations to bespeak our findings and discussions are provided. Our result shows that surveillance and contact tracing are effective for the containment of MPXV in the absence of a perfect vaccine.
期刊介绍:
Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience (CMBN) is a peer-reviewed open access international journal, which is aimed to provide a publication forum for important research in all aspects of mathematical biology and neuroscience. This journal will accept high quality articles containing original research results and survey articles of exceptional merit.