考虑到印尼雅加达土地利用变化和地面沉降，洪水淹没的未来预测

IF 0.6 Q4 WATER RESOURCES Hydrological Research Letters Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI:10.3178/HRL.11.99

I. R. Moe, S. Kure, N. F. Januriyadi, M. Farid, K. Udo, S. Kazama, S. Koshimura

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引用次数: 38

摘要

雅加达正面临与洪水有关的若干问题，包括沿海地区的地面沉降和上游地区土地利用/覆盖的迅速变化。在这项研究中，我们使用降雨径流和洪水淹没模型分析了未来土地利用变化和地面沉降的影响。根据SLEUTH模型预测了未来的土地利用情景，并根据雅加达当前状态的外推法预测了地面沉降。基于此分析，2013 - 2050年，土地利用变化和地面沉降对洪水淹没量的贡献增加了36.8%。此外，土地利用变化对雅加达洪水淹没的影响远大于地面沉降。政府目前的目标是到2020年停止地面沉降，到2050年，洪水淹没量将减少7.7%。此外，到2020年控制和调节土地利用/覆盖变化，到2050年洪水淹没量将减少10.9%。研究结果表明，不仅要考虑地表沉降的影响，还要考虑土地利用变化的影响。

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Future projection of flood inundation considering land-use changes and land subsidence in Jakarta, Indonesia

Jakarta is facing several issues related to flooding, including land subsidence in the coastal area and rapid land-use/ cover changes in the upstream area. In this study, we analyzed the effects of future changes in land use and land subsidence using a rainfall-runoff and flood inundation model. The future land-use scenarios were projected based on the SLEUTH model, and land subsidence was projected based on an extrapolation of the current state in Jakarta. Based on this analysis, land-use changes and land subsidence contributed to an increase in flood inundation volume of 36.8% from 2013 to 2050. Moreover, the effects of land-use changes on flood inundation in Jakarta were much greater than those of land subsidence. The government’s current target to stop land subsidence by 2020 would cause a 7.7% decrease in the flood inundation volume by 2050. Furthermore, controlling and regulating land-use/cover changes by 2020 would cause a 10.9% decrease in the flood inundation volume by 2050. From these results, we conclude that a flood mitigation plan should be made not only for land subsidence, but also for land-use changes.

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来源期刊

Hydrological Research Letters WATER RESOURCES-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

18.20%

发文量

审稿时长

10 weeks

期刊介绍： Hydrological Research Letters (HRL) is an international and trans-disciplinary electronic online journal published jointly by Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR), Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH), Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS), and Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH), aiming at rapid exchange and outgoing of information in these fields. The purpose is to disseminate original research findings and develop debates on a wide range of investigations on hydrology and water resources to researchers, students and the public. It also publishes reviews of various fields on hydrology and water resources and other information of interest to scientists to encourage communication and utilization of the published results. The editors welcome contributions from authors throughout the world. The decision on acceptance of a submitted manuscript is made by the journal editors on the basis of suitability of subject matter to the scope of the journal, originality of the contribution, potential impacts on societies and scientific merit. Manuscripts submitted to HRL may cover all aspects of hydrology and water resources, including research on physical and biological sciences, engineering, and social and political sciences from the aspects of hydrology and water resources.