全球模式试验中未来日本气候变化的季节特征及相关的大气环流异常

IF 0.6 Q4 WATER RESOURCES Hydrological Research Letters Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.3178/hrl.14.130
R. Ito, T. Ose, H. Endo, R. Mizuta, K. Yoshida, A. Kitoh, T. Nakaegawa
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引用次数: 4

摘要

:考虑到区域特征的未来气候变化信息对于制定全球变暖适应战略是必要的。基于耦合模式比对项目第5阶段(CMIP5)和气象研究所大气环流模式(MRI-AGCM)的全球变暖模拟,研究了21世纪后期日本及其周边地区(JPN)未来气候预估的季节特征,重点分析了不确定性的来源。JPN的整体平均地表气温增幅低于东亚陆区(EAS),反映了大陆-海洋的对比,而未来降水的定量变化取决于整体。CMIP5平均大气环流在冬季和夏季减弱,而在春季和秋季,日本北部的未来季节行军有延迟的趋势。CMIP5模式间的显著相关性在JPN气候预估和未来环流异常之间被发现,例如,模拟西风/东南风异常的集合成员倾向于预测未来夏季更热/更湿。当台风相关降水的未来变化被去除时,高分辨率MRI-AGCM预估与CMIP5模式间相关性一致,表明台风模拟可以对未来预估产生实质性影响。
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Seasonal characteristics of future climate change over Japan and the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies in global model experiments
: Information on future climate change considering regional characteristics is necessary to establish adaptation strategies for global warming. We investigated the seasonal characteristics of future climate projections over Japan and surroundings (JPN) in the late 21st century, focusing espe‐ cially on the source of uncertainty, based on two ensembles of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the Meteorological Research Institute atmo‐ spheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM) global warming simulations. The ensemble mean surface air tem‐ perature increase over JPN is lower than that over the East Asian land region (EAS), reflecting the continent–ocean contrast, whereas quantitative changes in future precipita‐ tion depend on the ensembles. The CMIP5 mean atmo‐ spheric circulation around JPN weakens in winter and sum‐ mer, while the future seasonal march tends to be delayed in the northern part of JPN during spring and autumn. Signifi‐ cant CMIP5 inter-model correlations are detected between the JPN climate projections and future circulation anoma‐ lies − e.g. the ensemble members simulating the westerly/ southeasterly wind anomaly tend to project hotter/wetter future summers. The high-resolution MRI-AGCM projec‐ tion is consistent with the CMIP5 inter-model correlations when the future change in typhoon–associated precipitation is removed, indicating typhoon simulations can substan‐ tially influence future projections.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
18.20%
发文量
9
审稿时长
10 weeks
期刊介绍: Hydrological Research Letters (HRL) is an international and trans-disciplinary electronic online journal published jointly by Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR), Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH), Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS), and Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH), aiming at rapid exchange and outgoing of information in these fields. The purpose is to disseminate original research findings and develop debates on a wide range of investigations on hydrology and water resources to researchers, students and the public. It also publishes reviews of various fields on hydrology and water resources and other information of interest to scientists to encourage communication and utilization of the published results. The editors welcome contributions from authors throughout the world. The decision on acceptance of a submitted manuscript is made by the journal editors on the basis of suitability of subject matter to the scope of the journal, originality of the contribution, potential impacts on societies and scientific merit. Manuscripts submitted to HRL may cover all aspects of hydrology and water resources, including research on physical and biological sciences, engineering, and social and political sciences from the aspects of hydrology and water resources.
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