{"title":"销售预测方法经济评价的动态系统模型","authors":"Lara Kuhlmann, M. Pauly","doi":"10.31803/tg-20230511175500","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Sales forecasts are essential for a smooth workflow and cost optimization. Usually, they are assessed using statistical error measures, which might be misleading in a business context. This paper proposes a new dynamic systems model for an economic evaluation of sales forecasts. The model describes the development of the inventory level over time and derives the resulting overstock and shortage costs. It is tested on roughly 3,000 real-world time series and compared with the commonly used approach based on statistical measures. The experiments show that different statistical measures have no coherent evaluation, making their usage even less suitable for a practical economic application.","PeriodicalId":43419,"journal":{"name":"TEHNICKI GLASNIK-TECHNICAL JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A Dynamic Systems Model for an Economic Evaluation of Sales Forecasting Methods\",\"authors\":\"Lara Kuhlmann, M. Pauly\",\"doi\":\"10.31803/tg-20230511175500\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Sales forecasts are essential for a smooth workflow and cost optimization. Usually, they are assessed using statistical error measures, which might be misleading in a business context. This paper proposes a new dynamic systems model for an economic evaluation of sales forecasts. The model describes the development of the inventory level over time and derives the resulting overstock and shortage costs. It is tested on roughly 3,000 real-world time series and compared with the commonly used approach based on statistical measures. The experiments show that different statistical measures have no coherent evaluation, making their usage even less suitable for a practical economic application.\",\"PeriodicalId\":43419,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"TEHNICKI GLASNIK-TECHNICAL JOURNAL\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-07-19\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"TEHNICKI GLASNIK-TECHNICAL JOURNAL\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.31803/tg-20230511175500\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"TEHNICKI GLASNIK-TECHNICAL JOURNAL","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.31803/tg-20230511175500","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
A Dynamic Systems Model for an Economic Evaluation of Sales Forecasting Methods
Sales forecasts are essential for a smooth workflow and cost optimization. Usually, they are assessed using statistical error measures, which might be misleading in a business context. This paper proposes a new dynamic systems model for an economic evaluation of sales forecasts. The model describes the development of the inventory level over time and derives the resulting overstock and shortage costs. It is tested on roughly 3,000 real-world time series and compared with the commonly used approach based on statistical measures. The experiments show that different statistical measures have no coherent evaluation, making their usage even less suitable for a practical economic application.