销售预测方法经济评价的动态系统模型

IF 0.7 Q3 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY TEHNICKI GLASNIK-TECHNICAL JOURNAL Pub Date : 2023-07-19 DOI:10.31803/tg-20230511175500
Lara Kuhlmann, M. Pauly
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引用次数: 0

摘要

销售预测对于顺利的工作流程和成本优化至关重要。通常,使用统计误差度量来评估它们,这在业务上下文中可能会产生误导。本文提出了一种新的动态系统模型,用于销售预测的经济评价。该模型描述了库存水平随时间的发展,并推导出由此产生的库存过剩和短缺成本。它在大约3000个真实世界的时间序列上进行了测试,并与基于统计度量的常用方法进行了比较。实验表明,不同的统计度量没有一致的评价,使得它们的使用更不适合实际的经济应用。
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A Dynamic Systems Model for an Economic Evaluation of Sales Forecasting Methods
Sales forecasts are essential for a smooth workflow and cost optimization. Usually, they are assessed using statistical error measures, which might be misleading in a business context. This paper proposes a new dynamic systems model for an economic evaluation of sales forecasts. The model describes the development of the inventory level over time and derives the resulting overstock and shortage costs. It is tested on roughly 3,000 real-world time series and compared with the commonly used approach based on statistical measures. The experiments show that different statistical measures have no coherent evaluation, making their usage even less suitable for a practical economic application.
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来源期刊
TEHNICKI GLASNIK-TECHNICAL JOURNAL
TEHNICKI GLASNIK-TECHNICAL JOURNAL ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
8.30%
发文量
85
审稿时长
15 weeks
期刊最新文献
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