能源消费数据预测方法研究

Ning Chen, Naernaer Xialihaer, Weiliang Kong, Jiping Ren
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引用次数: 5

摘要

本文在比较常用的能源消耗预测方法的基础上,对北京市的能源消耗状况进行了分析。本文采用多元线性回归分析、灰色预测、BP神经网络预测、灰色BP神经网络预测组合方法、LSTM长短期记忆网络模型预测方法。首先,在构建模型之前,对整个模型进行了理论解释。在建模之前,分析了每种模型的优缺点,并指出了这些模型相应的优缺点。最后,利用这些模型构建北京市能源预测模型,并选取某年作为检验样本,对预测精度进行检验。最后利用各模型对2018 - 2019年北京市总能耗发展趋势进行预测,并给出相关节能意见。
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Research on Prediction Methods of Energy Consumption Data
: This paper analyzes the energy consumption situation in Beijing, based on the comparison of common energy consumption prediction methods. Here we use multiple linear regression analysis, grey prediction, BP neural net-work prediction, grey BP neural network prediction combined method, LSTM long-term and short-term memory network model prediction method. Firstly, before constructing the model, the whole model is explained theoretically. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed before the modeling, and the corresponding advantages and disadvantages of these models are pointed out. Finally, these models are used to construct the Beijing energy forecasting model, and some years are selected as test samples to test the prediction accuracy. Finally, all models were used to predict the development trend of Beijing's total energy consumption from 2018 to 2019, and the relevant energy-saving opinions were given.
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