全球变暖对降水强度-持续时间-频率(IDF)关系的影响——以加拿大多伦多为例

E. Carlier, J. E. Khattabi
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引用次数: 4

摘要

根据甘贝尔分布分析了几个持续期和回复期的年最大降水强度。计算并比较了1980年前后的强度-持续时间-频率曲线。对于多伦多市而言,1980年之后的降雨强度低于此日期之前的降雨强度。对于那些持续时间较短的人来说,这一点尤其明显。将我们的结果与其他作者的结果进行比较,似乎目前还不能得出全球变暖对曲线强度、持续时间和频率影响的一般规律。全球变暖对降雨的影响似乎因地理位置而异,而且不可能在全球范围内得出一般性结论。
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Impact of Global Warming on Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Relationship of Precipitation: A Case Study of Toronto, Canada
Annual maximum rainfall intensity for several duration and return periods has been analyzed according to the Gumbel distribution. The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves before and after 1980 have been computed and compared. For the city of Toronto, it is shown that the rainfall intensities after 1980 are lower than those from before this date. This is especially clear for those of short duration. Comparing our results with those of other authors, it appears that, for the moment, no general law on the impact of global warming on the curves intensity duration frequency cannot be made. It appears that the impact of global warming on rainfall varies with geographic location and that it is not possible to draw some general conclusions across the planet.
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