Potential areas for silvopastoral systems based on the ecological niche of two forage crops and three species of conifers

Introduction: Ecological niche modeling is a fundamental tool to know the areas suitable for the establishment of silvopastoral systems, based on the environmental requirements of the species. Objectives: To model the ecological niche of the forage species Chloris gayana Kunth and Eragrostis curvula (Schrad.) Nees, and the conifers Pinus devoniana Lindley, Pinus lawsonii Roezl ex Gordon and Pinus montezumae Lambert and to identify potential areas for silvopastoral systems. Materials and methods: The ecological niche was modeled based on data from georeferenced collection sites in Mexico and 23 environmental variables. Subsequently, areas were identified and the extent, where forage species converge with conifers in both agricultural and forest areas, was estimated. Results and discussion: Potential areas for silvopastoral systems with the five species were found mainly in the Neovolcanic Axis and the Sierra Madre del Sur, with a greater area suitable for agricultural areas compared to forestry areas. The ecological niche models had high predictive capacity with an area under the curve values greater than 0.93. Altitude and annual temperature range were the most important variables. Pinus devoniana had the largest potential area to be intercropped with C. gayana and E. curvula. Conclusions: Mexico has the potential to establish silvopastoral systems with the species understudy in the center and south of the country, which could contribute to decreasing soil degradation, provide forage for livestock and maintain tree cover for agricultural and forest areas.