国内玉米价格变化对印度尼西亚小规模肉鸡养殖性能的影响

S. J. Umboh, D. Hakim, B. Sinaga, I. K. Kariyasa
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本研究旨在利用多市场模型分析分析玉米价格变化对印度尼西亚小规模肉鸡养殖性能的影响。多市场模型分析是一种局部均衡分析,它包含六组方程:价格、供给、投入需求、消费、收入和均衡。该模型分析最初是在通用代数建模系统(GAMS)中使用路径NLP求解器设计的。本研究使用的数据分为三类,即:(1)生产投入、消费和家庭收入;(2)投入和产出,(3)弹性。农民通过减少玉米种植面积和化肥用量来应对国内玉米价格的下降。它进一步对玉米生产和玉米农民的收入产生了不良影响。然而,该政策对肉鸡生产和小规模肉鸡养殖收入产生了积极影响。如果政府提高国内玉米价格,这些变量将受到相反的影响。这一政策导致饲料工业对玉米的需求减少。这种情况导致鸡肉产量下降,小规模肉鸡养殖收入下降。关键词:玉米;肉鸡;价格
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Impacts of Domestic Maize Price Changes on the Performance of Small-scale Broiler Farming in Indonesia
This research aimed at analyzing the impact of maize price changes on the performance of small-scale broiler farming in Indonesia using a multimarket model analysis. The multimarket model analysis is partial equilibrium analysis that contains six blocks of equations: prices, supply, input demand, consumption, income and equilibrium. This model analysis was originally designed in General Algebric Modelling System (GAMS) using the Path NLP solver. Employed data in this study were classified into 3 types, namely: (1) production and input, consumption, and household income; (2) inputs and outputs, and (3) elasticities. Decreased domestic maize price was responded by farmer through reducing maize planted area and fertilizers uses. It further had undesired impact on the maize production and maize farmer’s income. Whereas, this policy had positive impact on meat production and small-scale broiler farming income. The opposite impact will happen on those variables, if government increases domestic maize price. This policy caused the maize demand for feed industry decreased. As a result of this condition, it decreased the chicken meat production and small-scale broiler farming income. Key words: maize, broiler, price, multimarket
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