{"title":"从系统思维的角度分析恐怖主义","authors":"Lukas Schoenenberger, A. Schenker-Wicki, M. Beck","doi":"10.5167/UZH-99663","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Given the complexity of terrorism, solutions based on single factors are destined to fail. Systems thinking o\"ers various tools for helping researchers and policy makers comprehend terrorism in its entirety. We have developed a semi-quantitative systems thinking approach for characterising relationships between variables critical to terrorism and their impact on the system as a whole. For a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying terrorism, we present a 16-variable model characterising the critical components of terrorism and perform a series of highly focused analyses. We show how to determine which variables are best suited for government intervention, describing in detail their e\"ects on the key variable—the political in%uence of a terrorist network. We also o\"er insights into how to elicit variables that destabilise and ultimately break down these networks. Because we clarify our novel approach with #ctional data, the primary importance of this paper lies in the new framework for reasoning that it provides.","PeriodicalId":37532,"journal":{"name":"Perspectives on Terrorism","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2014-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"21","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analysing terrorism from a systems thinking perspective\",\"authors\":\"Lukas Schoenenberger, A. Schenker-Wicki, M. Beck\",\"doi\":\"10.5167/UZH-99663\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Given the complexity of terrorism, solutions based on single factors are destined to fail. Systems thinking o\\\"ers various tools for helping researchers and policy makers comprehend terrorism in its entirety. We have developed a semi-quantitative systems thinking approach for characterising relationships between variables critical to terrorism and their impact on the system as a whole. For a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying terrorism, we present a 16-variable model characterising the critical components of terrorism and perform a series of highly focused analyses. We show how to determine which variables are best suited for government intervention, describing in detail their e\\\"ects on the key variable—the political in%uence of a terrorist network. We also o\\\"er insights into how to elicit variables that destabilise and ultimately break down these networks. Because we clarify our novel approach with #ctional data, the primary importance of this paper lies in the new framework for reasoning that it provides.\",\"PeriodicalId\":37532,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Perspectives on Terrorism\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2014-02-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"21\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Perspectives on Terrorism\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.5167/UZH-99663\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"Social Sciences\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Perspectives on Terrorism","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5167/UZH-99663","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Social Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analysing terrorism from a systems thinking perspective
Given the complexity of terrorism, solutions based on single factors are destined to fail. Systems thinking o"ers various tools for helping researchers and policy makers comprehend terrorism in its entirety. We have developed a semi-quantitative systems thinking approach for characterising relationships between variables critical to terrorism and their impact on the system as a whole. For a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying terrorism, we present a 16-variable model characterising the critical components of terrorism and perform a series of highly focused analyses. We show how to determine which variables are best suited for government intervention, describing in detail their e"ects on the key variable—the political in%uence of a terrorist network. We also o"er insights into how to elicit variables that destabilise and ultimately break down these networks. Because we clarify our novel approach with #ctional data, the primary importance of this paper lies in the new framework for reasoning that it provides.
期刊介绍:
Perspectives on Terrorism (PT), the peer-reviewed online journal of the Terrorism Research Initiative (TRI), is published six time per year by our Editorial Team PT seeks to provide a unique platform for established scholars as well as academics and professionals entering the field of Terrorism, Political Violence and Conflict Studies. It invites them to: -present their perspectives on the prevention of, and response to,terrorism and related forms of violent conflict; -submit to the journal accounts of evidence-based, empirical scientific research and analyses; -use the journal as a forum for debate and commentary on issues related to the above. Perspectives on Terrorism (PT) could be characterized as ‘nontraditional’ in that it dispenses with some of the traditional rigidities associated with commercial print journals. Topical articles can be published at short notice and reach, through the Internet, a much larger audience than fee-based subscription journals. Our online journal also offers contributors a higher degree of flexibility in terms of content, style and length of articles - but without compromising professional scholarly standards. While aiming to be policy-relevant, PT is not supporting any partisan policies regarding (counter-) terrorism and forms of conflict-waging. Impartiality, objectivity and accuracy are guiding principles we expect contributors to adhere to.