Prediction of septic and hypovolemic shock in intensive care unit patients using machine learning

Objective To create and validate a model for predicting septic or hypovolemic shock from easily obtainable variables collected from patients at admission to an intensive care unit. Methods A predictive modeling study with concurrent cohort data was conducted in a hospital in the interior of northeastern Brazil. Patients aged 18 years or older who were not using vasoactive drugs on the day of admission and were hospitalized from November 2020 to July 2021 were included. The Decision Tree, Random Forest, AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting and XGBoost classification algorithms were tested for use in building the model. The validation method used was k-fold cross validation. The evaluation metrics used were recall, precision and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve. Results A total of 720 patients were used to create and validate the model. The models showed high predictive capacity with areas under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.979; 0.999; 0.980; 0.998 and 1.00 for the Decision Tree, Random Forest, AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting and XGBoost algorithms, respectively. Conclusion The predictive model created and validated showed a high ability to predict septic and hypovolemic shock from the time of admission of patients to the intensive care unit.