印度贾坎德邦地区月、季、年降水时空变化趋势

S. Mali, B. Das, J. S. Choudhary, An Singh, B. Bhatt
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引用次数: 6

摘要

气候变化中降水的空间变异性和时间趋势特征对于评估气候引起的变化以支持未来适当的农业规划和水资源管理战略至关重要。在此背景下,研究了贾坎德邦东部高原和丘陵地区降水的时空变化。利用“普通克里格”地统计插值技术绘制降水空间分布图。利用MannKendall和Sen’s slope方法,对贾坎德邦18个地点40年(1975-2014)的月、季尺度降水趋势进行了综合分析。贾坎德邦的季节和年降水量表现出较大的空间变异性。虽然季风和年降水的空间分布大致相似,但由于季风前和冬季降水引起的变化,年降水在空间上有很大的变化。统计分析显示,在年和季节尺度上,主要呈下降趋势。大部分地区(15)7月降水量呈显著减少趋势(-3.17 ~ -6.21 mm/年),而原研究文章Mali等;地球物理学报,20(6):1- 17,2017;文章no.BJAST。335022 . 5月及其他“季风”月份的趋势不显著。在参考期内,有61%、67%和50%的地区季风、冬季和年降水量呈显著负趋势,季风和年降水量的减少幅度分别在-5.3 ~ -13.0和-5.3 ~ -15.9 mm/年之间。鉴于该州农业对降雨的依赖性和降水的减少趋势,本文提供的信息可为进一步的气候变化风险评估和脆弱性适应规划提供支持。
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Spatial and Temporal Trends of Monthly, Seasonal and Annual Precipitation in Districts of Jharkhand in India
Characterization of spatial variability and temporal trends in precipitation in a changing climate is vital to assess climate-induced changes to support adequate agricultural planning and water resources management strategies for the future. In this context, spatial and temporal variability in the precipitation over Jharkhand state in Eastern plateau and hill region is investigated. Spatial distribution of precipitation was mapped using ‘ordinary kriging’ geostatistical interpolation technique. A comprehensive precipitation trend and periodic analysis at the monthly and seasonal scale on a 40 year data series (1975-2014) for 18 locations in Jharkhand are presented using MannKendall and Sen’s slope methods. The seasonal and annual precipitation showed large spatial variability across the Jharkhand. Although, the spatial distribution of monsoon and annual precipitation are roughly similar, annual precipitation varied considerably in space due to the variations induced by pre-monsoon and winter precipitation. The statistical analysis revealed predominantly decreasing trends, both at the annual and seasonal scale. July precipitation showed significantly decreasing trend (-3.17 to -6.21 mm/year) in large number of districts (15), while the Original Research Article Mali et al.; BJAST, 20(6): 1-17, 2017; Article no.BJAST.33502 2 trend in May and other ‘monsoon’ months was not significant. Over the reference period, the negative trends in monsoon, winter and annual precipitation were significant for 61, 67 and 50% of the total districts analyzed with rate of decrease for monsoon and annual precipitation in the range of -5.3 to -13.0 and -5.3 to -15.9 mm/year, respectively. In view of the rainfall dependence of the agriculture in the state and decreasing trends of precipitation, the information presented in this paper can supports further climate change risk assessment and vulnerability adaptation planning.
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