Predicting the Need for Surgery in Patients with Lumbar Disc Herniation: A New Internally Validated Scoring System.

Study design: Prospective study.

Purpose: To propose a scoring system for predicting the need for surgery in patients with lumbar disc herniation (LDH).

Overview of literature: The indications for surgery in patients with LDH are well established. However, the exact timing of surgery is not. According to surgeons, patients with failed conservative treatment who underwent delayed surgery, often after 6 months postsymptom initiation, have poor functional recovery and outcome.

Methods: The current study included patients with symptomatic LDH. Patients with an indication for emergent surgery such as profound or progressive motor deficit, cauda equina syndrome, and diagnoses other than single-level LDH were excluded from the analysis. All patients followed a conservative treatment regimen (a combination of physical therapy, pain medications, and/or spinal epidural steroid injections). Surgery was indicated for patients who continuously experienced pain despite maximal conservative therapy.

Results: In total, 134 patients met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Among them, 108 (80.6%) responded to conservative management, and 26 (19.4%) underwent unilateral laminotomy and microdiscectomy. The symptom duration, disc degeneration grade on magnetic resonance imaging (Pfirrmann disc grade), herniated disc location and type, fragment size, and thecal sac diameter significantly differed between patients who responded to conservative treatment and those requiring surgery. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the scoring system based on the anteroposterior size of the herniated disc fragment and herniated disc location and type was 0.81.

Conclusions: A scoring system based on herniated disc/fragment size, location, and type can be applied to predict the need for surgery in patients with LDH. In the future, this tool can be used to prevent unnecessarily prolonged conservative management (>4-8 weeks).