改进的BP神经网络在减小传统交通量预测误差方面的应用与研究

J. Kang, Baiben Chen, Wei Wang
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引用次数: 1

摘要

交通分析与预测是公路建设项目[1]可行性研究的核心内容之一。对公路建设和路网发展具有重要意义。传统的交通量预测,以[2]四步预测法为代表,由于存在诸多不确定因素,使得最终的预测结果与实际情况偏差较大,无法达到预期的效果。本文以减少影响结果的不确定因素的误差为出发点,对标准BP神经网络[3]进行改进,以解决训练中出现的问题,并将其应用于工程实例的交通量预测模型中。预测结果表明,该方法预测准确、有效,达到了减小预测误差的目的。
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The application and research in reducing the errors of traditional traffic volume prediction using an improved BP neural network
Traffic analysis and prediction is one of the core contents in the feasibility study of highway construction project [1]. It has the vital significance to the highway construction and road networks development. The traditional traffic volume prediction, as four steps prediction method [2] represented, have many uncertain factors to make the deviation between final forecast results and actual situation is larger, and unable to achieve the expected effect. This paper takes that reducing the errors of the indefinite factors influencing the results as a starting point, improves the standard BP neural network [3] to solve the problems appearing in training, and puts it into the traffic volume prediction model which applied in engineering instances. Forecasting results show that this method predicts accurately and efficiently, and achieves the purpose of reducing prediction errors.
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