{"title":"离散时间贝叶斯序列复合假设检验","authors":"Erik Ekstrom, Yuqiong Wang","doi":"10.1051/ps/2022005","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We study the sequential testing problem of two alternative hypotheses regarding an unknown parameter in an exponential family when observations are costly. In a Bayesian setting, the problem can be embedded in a Markovian framework. Using the conditional probability of one of the hypotheses as the underlying spatial variable, we show that the cost function is concave and that the posterior distribution becomes more concentrated as time goes on. Moreover, we study time monotonicity of the value function. For a large class of model specifications, the cost function is non-decreasing in time, and the optimal stopping boundaries are thus monotone.","PeriodicalId":51249,"journal":{"name":"Esaim-Probability and Statistics","volume":"93 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2021-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Bayesian sequential composite hypothesis testing in discrete time\",\"authors\":\"Erik Ekstrom, Yuqiong Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.1051/ps/2022005\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We study the sequential testing problem of two alternative hypotheses regarding an unknown parameter in an exponential family when observations are costly. In a Bayesian setting, the problem can be embedded in a Markovian framework. Using the conditional probability of one of the hypotheses as the underlying spatial variable, we show that the cost function is concave and that the posterior distribution becomes more concentrated as time goes on. Moreover, we study time monotonicity of the value function. For a large class of model specifications, the cost function is non-decreasing in time, and the optimal stopping boundaries are thus monotone.\",\"PeriodicalId\":51249,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Esaim-Probability and Statistics\",\"volume\":\"93 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-08-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Esaim-Probability and Statistics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1051/ps/2022005\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Esaim-Probability and Statistics","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1051/ps/2022005","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Bayesian sequential composite hypothesis testing in discrete time
We study the sequential testing problem of two alternative hypotheses regarding an unknown parameter in an exponential family when observations are costly. In a Bayesian setting, the problem can be embedded in a Markovian framework. Using the conditional probability of one of the hypotheses as the underlying spatial variable, we show that the cost function is concave and that the posterior distribution becomes more concentrated as time goes on. Moreover, we study time monotonicity of the value function. For a large class of model specifications, the cost function is non-decreasing in time, and the optimal stopping boundaries are thus monotone.
期刊介绍:
The journal publishes original research and survey papers in the area of Probability and Statistics. It covers theoretical and practical aspects, in any field of these domains.
Of particular interest are methodological developments with application in other scientific areas, for example Biology and Genetics, Information Theory, Finance, Bioinformatics, Random structures and Random graphs, Econometrics, Physics.
Long papers are very welcome.
Indeed, we intend to develop the journal in the direction of applications and to open it to various fields where random mathematical modelling is important. In particular we will call (survey) papers in these areas, in order to make the random community aware of important problems of both theoretical and practical interest. We all know that many recent fascinating developments in Probability and Statistics are coming from "the outside" and we think that ESAIM: P&S should be a good entry point for such exchanges. Of course this does not mean that the journal will be only devoted to practical aspects.