一个新的多用途离散分布

R J. Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.32614/rj-2021-067
Rolf Turner
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文介绍了一种新的离散数据柔性分布。讨论了作为数值优化过程起始值的分布参数的近似矩估计量。考虑了通过数值过程实现的“精确”矩估计和最大似然估计。通过仿真实验对这些估计器产生的结果的质量进行了评估。文中给出了对实际数据和模拟数据的拟合实例。值得注意的是,新分布是指数族的一个成员。导出了新分布的对数似然梯度和Hessian的表达式。前者便于利用optimtim()实现似然值的数值最大化;后者提供了计算或估计参数估计的协方差矩阵的方法。讨论了用黑森法求逆得到的协方差矩阵估计与用蒙特卡罗法得到的协方差矩阵估计之间的差异。
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A New Versatile Discrete Distribution
This paper introduces a new flexible distribution for discrete data. Approximate moment estimators of the parameters of the distribution, to be used as starting values for numerical optimization procedures, are discussed. “Exact” moment estimation, effected via a numerical procedure, and maximum likelihood estimation, are considered. The quality of the results produced by these estimators is assessed via simulation experiments. Several examples are given of fitting instances of the new distribution to real and simulated data. It is noted that the new distribution is a member of the exponential family. Expressions for the gradient and Hessian of the log-likelihood of the new distribution are derived. The former facilitates the numerical maximization of the likelihood with optim(); the latter provides means of calculating or estimating the covariance matrix of of the parameter estimates. A discrepancy between estimates of the covariance matrix obtained by inverting the Hessian and those obtained by Monte Carlo methods is discussed.
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