金融发展和石油价格如何导致巴基斯坦的贸易开放?

Damian Honey
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引用次数: 0

摘要

过去,金融发展和石油价格被认为是影响经济增长的关键因素。这促使我们探讨金融发展和石油价格如何影响巴基斯坦的贸易开放。为了应用ARDL协整方法,选取1980 - 2016年的年度数据样本。我们的研究结果反映了贸易开放与其影响因素之间存在长期协整关系。这表明,随着私营部门信贷的增加,最终会对进出口产生影响,而国际石油价格也会通过推高商品价格来影响进口和出口。因此,有人建议,从贸易开放的角度来看,对冲油价和扩大巴基斯坦信贷是值得的。
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How does Financial Development and Petroleum Price cause Trade Openness in Pakistan?
In the past financial development and petroleum prices have been identified as acrucial factor influencing economic growth. This provoked us to explore the way financial development and petroleum prices influence the trade openness in Pakistan. The sample of yearly data is collected from 1980 to 2016 in order to apply ARDL cointegration method. Our results reflect the presence of long term cointegration between trade openness and its factors. This suggest that with the rise in credit in private sector there is eventual impact on imports and exports whereas the international petroleum prices also impact the same by pushing the prices of goods. Hence it is recommended that hedging the oil prices and the expansion of credit in Pakistan is worthwhile in terms of trade openness.
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