用于农业模式的历年全球日辐射重建

H. Oesterle
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引用次数: 31

摘要

提出了一种基于标准气象观测资料估算全球日辐射的方法。全球辐射可以用有或没有条件(约束)的一维回归方程来计算。在这两种情况下,每日日照时数、平均云量或温度范围均可作为预测指标。在一般情况下,为了选择合适的条件方程,选择湿度作为主变量。根据42个德国辐射站的数据,建立并验证了回归方程。以日照时数为预测因子的单日计算值与实测数据的年均方根误差(RMSE)约为1.6 MJ m−2 day−1,以温度范围和相对湿度为预测因子的年均方根误差为3.0 MJ m−2 day−1。多年来,这种估算方法已用于重建约400个德国气象站的每日全球辐射,以及没有全球辐射观测的气象站。重建的数据将用于农业和水文模型。
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Reconstruction of daily global radiation for past years for use in agricultural models

A method of estimation of daily global radiation based on standard meteorological observations is presented. Global radiation may be calculated with one-dimensional regression equations, either with or without conditions (constraints). Daily duration of sunshine, mean cloudiness or temperature range can be used as predictors in either case. In general to select the proper equations with conditions, humidity was chosen as a master variable. Formulation and validation of the regression equations is done on the basis of data from 42 German radiation stations. The annual root mean square error (RMSE) between values calculated for individual days with the estimation method developed, and measured data, was about 1.6 MJ m−2 day−1 using sunshine duration as the predictor and 3.0 MJ m−2 day−1 using both temperature range and relative humidity as predictors.

This estimation method has been used for reconstruction of daily global radiation for about 400 German meteorological stations for years, and for stations without observations of global radiation. Reconstructed data will be used in agricultural and hydrological models.

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