Can a Complicated “Consensus” Survive a Dose of Populist Poison? Exploring the Potential Impact of Brexit and Trumpism on the Developed Country Approach to Trade Law and Policy

Abstract Among wealthier, so-called “developed” nations, a consistent and shared policy orientation on trade has generally prevailed over the last three quarters of a century. This consensus has been hallmarked by the promotion of freer trade facilitated by a state-centric, rules-based legal system. While most wealthy countries appear to desire a continued fidelity to that policy orthodoxy, the United Kingdom’s (UK’s) ‘Brexit’ decision and the United States’ (US’) increasingly antagonistic stance toward World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement beg the question as to whether fissures in the consensus are forming. This paper examines the depth of the perceived consensus and the degree to which US and UK actions signify a turning point. As part of this examination, populism’s role in promoting change in the US, UK and beyond, is explored.