孟加拉吉大港城市暴雨内涝预测

Aysha Akter, Syed Abdullah Mohit, Mohammad Ayanul Huq Chowdhury
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引用次数: 21

摘要

近年来,吉大港和孟加拉国其他城市化地区一样,正在经历降雨引发的“城市暴雨内涝”(USWL)事件。为了减轻这种情况,迫切需要事先预测USWL,而数值模型可以提供帮助。因此,本文拟通过2013-2014年的实地调查和问卷调查,采用HEC-HMS水文模型。在日报等辅助数据源的支持下,通过深入问卷调查和实地考察,确定了13个最脆弱的USWL地点,并在此基础上建立了USWL深度-持续时间-频率曲线。结果表明,在内涝期间(即5 - 7月),内涝深度上升0.3-1.27 m,每年给周边居民造成的损失高达13次,淹没期长达48 h。利用这些数据建立了HEC-HMS模型,在定标期和验证期与现场测量的相关系数R2分别为0.83和0.77。一旦有了实时水文数据集,经过验证的模型就可以为决策支持系统提供有用的信息。
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Predicting urban storm water-logging for Chittagong city in Bangladesh

In recent years, rainfall induced ‘urban storm water-logging’ (USWL) events are experiencing in Chittagong city like other urbanized parts of Bangladesh. To mitigate this there is an urgent need to predict the USWL beforehand and a numerical model could help. Thus, this paper aimed to use a hydrological model i.e. HEC-HMS through field survey during 2013–2014 and a questionnaire survey. With the support of secondary data source viz. daily newspaper, intensive questionnaire survey and field visits identified 13 most vulnerable USWL locations and based on these a USWL depth–duration–frequency curve was developed. This showed during water logging (i.e. May–July), the depth of logged water rises 0.3–1.27 m causing adjacent dwellers sufferings upto 13 times per year and the inundation period is up to 48 h. Using these, HEC-HMS model was setup and the correlation obtained with the field measurement as R2 values 0.83 and 0.77 during calibration and verification period respectively. Once a real time hydrological dataset is available, the validated model supposed to provide useful information in the decision support system.

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