预测新冠肺炎病例和死亡人数

Aldona Migała-Warchoł, Monika Pichla
{"title":"预测新冠肺炎病例和死亡人数","authors":"Aldona Migała-Warchoł, Monika Pichla","doi":"10.15678/IER.2021.0701.06","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Objective: The aim of this publication is to analyze the value of the number of new cases and deaths from COVID-19 in selected European Union countries: Poland, France and Belgium.Research Design & Methods: Data were collected from the on-line database: https://covid.ourworldindata.org/ data/owid-covid-data.xlsx, which demonstrate the daily number of new cases and deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The forecast was based on a linear trend function and a 7-period moving average, using Statistica 13 software.Findings: The test results facilitated an evaluation of the diversity in the number of cases and the number of deaths in the assessed countries. Implications & Recommendations: From the obtained results, it can be concluded that the pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus will end in 2021, about a year after the first case that appeared in Europe, provided that the vaccines are also effective against the mutated form of the virus.Implications & Recommendations: Based on the results obtained by China, where the pandemic ended after a year, it can be assumed that EU countries will also win the fight against Covid-19 at a similar time provided that the vaccines are also effective against the mutated forms of the virus. This is indicated by the results of research obtained in this paper. However, it should be remembered that the pandemic is unpredictable and it is difficult to predict the values of variables for a longer period of time.Contribution & Value Added: The article indicates the methods of combating Covid-19 in selected countries of the European Union.","PeriodicalId":54132,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Entrepreneurship","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Forecasting the number of cases and deaths from Covid-19\",\"authors\":\"Aldona Migała-Warchoł, Monika Pichla\",\"doi\":\"10.15678/IER.2021.0701.06\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Objective: The aim of this publication is to analyze the value of the number of new cases and deaths from COVID-19 in selected European Union countries: Poland, France and Belgium.Research Design & Methods: Data were collected from the on-line database: https://covid.ourworldindata.org/ data/owid-covid-data.xlsx, which demonstrate the daily number of new cases and deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The forecast was based on a linear trend function and a 7-period moving average, using Statistica 13 software.Findings: The test results facilitated an evaluation of the diversity in the number of cases and the number of deaths in the assessed countries. Implications & Recommendations: From the obtained results, it can be concluded that the pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus will end in 2021, about a year after the first case that appeared in Europe, provided that the vaccines are also effective against the mutated form of the virus.Implications & Recommendations: Based on the results obtained by China, where the pandemic ended after a year, it can be assumed that EU countries will also win the fight against Covid-19 at a similar time provided that the vaccines are also effective against the mutated forms of the virus. This is indicated by the results of research obtained in this paper. However, it should be remembered that the pandemic is unpredictable and it is difficult to predict the values of variables for a longer period of time.Contribution & Value Added: The article indicates the methods of combating Covid-19 in selected countries of the European Union.\",\"PeriodicalId\":54132,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Review of Entrepreneurship\",\"volume\":\"21 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-03-31\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Review of Entrepreneurship\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.15678/IER.2021.0701.06\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Review of Entrepreneurship","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.15678/IER.2021.0701.06","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2

摘要

目的:本出版物的目的是分析选定的欧盟国家(波兰、法国和比利时)COVID-19新病例和死亡人数的价值。研究设计与方法:数据来自在线数据库:https://covid.ourworldindata.org/ Data /owid-covid-data.xlsx,该数据库显示了COVID-19大流行导致的每日新增病例数和死亡人数。预测基于线性趋势函数和7期移动平均线,使用Statistica 13软件。调查结果:测试结果有助于评估被评估国家病例数量和死亡人数的多样性。影响与建议:根据获得的结果,可以得出结论,如果疫苗对突变型病毒也有效,则由SARS-CoV-2病毒引起的大流行将在2021年结束,即在欧洲出现第一例病例后约一年。启示与建议:根据中国获得的结果,大流行在一年后结束,可以假设欧盟国家也将在类似的时间赢得对抗Covid-19的斗争,前提是疫苗对病毒的突变形式也有效。本文的研究结果表明了这一点。然而,应该记住,大流行是不可预测的,很难预测较长时期内的变量值。贡献与附加值:文章指出了欧盟选定国家抗击Covid-19的方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Forecasting the number of cases and deaths from Covid-19
Objective: The aim of this publication is to analyze the value of the number of new cases and deaths from COVID-19 in selected European Union countries: Poland, France and Belgium.Research Design & Methods: Data were collected from the on-line database: https://covid.ourworldindata.org/ data/owid-covid-data.xlsx, which demonstrate the daily number of new cases and deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The forecast was based on a linear trend function and a 7-period moving average, using Statistica 13 software.Findings: The test results facilitated an evaluation of the diversity in the number of cases and the number of deaths in the assessed countries. Implications & Recommendations: From the obtained results, it can be concluded that the pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus will end in 2021, about a year after the first case that appeared in Europe, provided that the vaccines are also effective against the mutated form of the virus.Implications & Recommendations: Based on the results obtained by China, where the pandemic ended after a year, it can be assumed that EU countries will also win the fight against Covid-19 at a similar time provided that the vaccines are also effective against the mutated forms of the virus. This is indicated by the results of research obtained in this paper. However, it should be remembered that the pandemic is unpredictable and it is difficult to predict the values of variables for a longer period of time.Contribution & Value Added: The article indicates the methods of combating Covid-19 in selected countries of the European Union.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊最新文献
Entwicklung und Erprobung eines kompetenzorientierten Leistungstests auf unternehmerisches Wissen und Denken Accrual-based earnings management and organizational life cycles: Two-dimensional analysis Non-fungible tokens as an area of entrepreneurial activity: Global perspective and potential directions of change Does masculine orientation affect entrepreneurial intentions? Empirical research results among students The role and antecedents of contextual intelligence in complex decision-making environments: The case of the pharmaceutical/biotech sector
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1