资源诅咒、开放与制度质量下海合会对外贸易的发展作用

Nashwa Mostafa Ali Mohamed
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引用次数: 1

摘要

与以往的实证研究不同,本研究通过研究2002-2012年期间阿拉伯海湾合作委员会(GCC)的资源诅咒、开放程度和制度质量对经济增长的影响,依赖于面板动态模型来分析贸易与经济增长之间的关系。从长期来看,该模型基于面板协整检验、完全修正最小二乘法和动态最小二乘法。在短期内,通过使用脉冲响应函数来估计这种关系。它的结论是,从长远来看,贸易开放在解释海湾合作委员会的经济增长方面发挥了重要作用,石油出口的作用是不确定的,而制度质量的作用是缺席的。从短期来看,这些国家所达到的体制质量水平可以防止依赖石油出口的负面影响。因此,资源诅咒假说在海湾合作委员会国家长期或短期内都没有得到证实。
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The Development role of GCC Foreign Trade under Resources Curse, Openness and Institutional Quality

The current study was differentiated from previous empirical studies given its reliance on a panel dynamic model to analize the relationship between trade and economic growth, through addressing the impact of resource curse, openness and institutional quality on the economic growth of the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) during the period (2002-2012). This model was based, on the long run, on the panel cointegration tests, the fully modified least squares method and dynamic least squares methods. On the short run, the relationship was estimated through the use of Impulse response functions. It concluded that trade openness has an important role in explaining the economic growth of the GCC on the long run, the role of oil exports is uncertain, while the role of institutional quality is absent. On the short run, the institutional quality level achieved by these countries may prevent the negative impact of dependence on oil exports. Accordingly, the resource curse hypothesis was not proven in the GCC countries on the long or short runs.

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