墨西哥城的行人死亡率:有限理性视角下的一般分析

IF 0.1 Q4 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Astrolabio-Nueva Epoca Pub Date : 2021-09-10 DOI:10.47386/vol1num1art5_21
Ramiro Flores-Xolocotzi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

从行人碰撞中驾驶员和行人有限理性的理论角度出发,从1997年到2017年对墨西哥城行人的死亡率进行了研究,考虑了可归因于人或其他原因、地点(十字路口和非十字路口)、事故发生的时间、日期、月份、当地市政当局和年份。对分析估计了一个广义泊松模型。根据模型结果,分析了行人被碾压后的相对死亡风险。有三个显著的结果:由于药剂的不可归因原因,致死率和相对死亡风险增加。第二,非十字路口的死亡率较高,而非十字路口的相对死亡风险按百分比计算较低。第三,行人可归因的死亡率和相对死亡风险高于司机可归因的死亡率。这些结果可能构成描述有限理性的不确定性和信息约束的一部分。结论是,在无干扰路口过马路会增加行人的死亡率,增加死亡的相对风险。此外,还观察到与代理人行为无关的原因(行人和司机)导致更多的行人死亡。
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Letalidad peatonal en Ciudad de México: análisis general desde una perspectiva de racionalidad limitada
Considering a theoretical perspective of bounded rationality of drivers and pedestrians in pedestrian collisions, a research was carried out about pedes-trian lethality rate in Mexico City considering attribu-table causes to persons or other causes, place (intersections and non-intersections of roads), time of the day, day, month, local municipalities and year of the accident from 1997 to 2017. To the analysis was estimated a Generalized Poisson Model. With the model results, the relative risk of pedestrian death after being run over was analyzed. There are three remarkable results: Lethality and relative risk of deaths increased due to non-attributable causes of the agents. Secondly, that lethality is higher in non-intersections and that the relative risk of deaths in intersections is lower in percentage terms concer-ning non-intersections. Third, that lethality and the relative risk of deaths are greater in attributable causes of pedestrians than in attributable causes of drivers. These results may constitute part of the un-certainty and information constraints that describe bounded rationality. The conclusion is that crossing pedestrians at non-interference crossings can in-crease lethality and increase death's relative risk. Also, it was observed that causes unrelated to agent’s actions (pedestrians and drivers) cause mo-re pedestrian deaths.
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Astrolabio-Nueva Epoca
Astrolabio-Nueva Epoca SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-
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发文量
32
审稿时长
12 weeks
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