FORECASTING THE SPREAD OF ZOONOTIC INFECTIONS

The Sphere program uses modern open source code and is based on the capabilities of global databases and cartographic information from geoinformation systems openly presented in the Internet. The researcher can enter coordinates of the found biological material into the program and obtain a predictive model of the parasitic organism distribution with a certain tolerance. The biological material is found infected wild animals, invasive biohelminth eggs or positive samples of water, soil or bottom sediments. Sphere analyzes hypothetical habitats of helminth hosts, presents them in the form of spheres with a diameter of several meters (for amphibians and reptiles) up to several kilometers (for mammals), takes into account the presence of surface water bodies, soil types, vegetation types, as well as meteorological conditions, the direction of water flow, and seasonality of external influences. At the intersection of several spheres, the program makes a logical conclusion about the natural focus expansion under the influence of natural conditions – for example, drought or excessive precipitation – its transformation. The program information is displayed on an electronic map as the probability of detecting one or another form of a parasitic object in percent – for example, in a particular forest – the probability of location of an infected animal is 60%, in a specific open area, 40%, etc.