预期的税收变化重要吗?来自英国的进一步证据

Fabio C. Bagliano
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引用次数: 4

摘要

本文通过测试支出对预先宣布的所得税变化的响应性,提供了一些反对消费行为的理性预期-永久收入模型和李嘉图等价命题的证据。本文对英国(1960-1990)的一系列此类反复发作的事件进行了研究。研究发现,消费支出对(预先宣布的)财政导致的当前可支配收入变化反应强烈。这种影响可归因于支出的半耐用和耐用部分。
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Do anticipated tax changes matter? Further evidence from the United Kingdom

This paper provides some evidence against the rational expectations—permanent income model of consumption behaviour and the Ricardian Equivalence proposition by testing the responsiveness of spending to the implementation of pre-announced changes in income taxes. A long series of recurrent episodes of this kind for the United Kingdom (1960–1990) is examined. It is found that consumption expenditure strongly reacts to (pre-announced) fiscally-induced changes in current disposable income. This effect is attributable to the semi-durable and durable component of spending.

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