太阳能发电预测的贝叶斯回归

Kaustubha H. Shedbalkar, D. More
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引用次数: 0

摘要

太阳能发电预测是为配电网规划提供支持的重要因素。由于太阳能发电对天气状况的预测结果可靠,因此基于时间的预测是可行的。天气状况本身就是一种预报方法,现在已经变得相当准确了。发电结果为多参数回归模型。本文给出了用线性回归模型、脊回归模型和贝叶斯回归模型进行太阳能发电预测的实验结果。在批处理方法中,贝叶斯模型在15分钟时间间隔数据的均方误差方面优于其他方法。
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Bayesian Regression for Solar Power Forecasting
The solar power forecasting is important factor that provides support to planning terms of power distribution organizations. The time based forecasting is feasible due to dependable outcome of solar power generation on weather status. The weather status itself is prediction method involving approach which is becoming considerably accurate these days. The power generation outcome is the multiple parameter regression model. This paper shows the experimental outcome of solar power generation forecasting with linear, ridge and Bayesian regression models. The best performing Bayesian model is compared with other existing methods in which Bayesian model outperforms in terms of mean square error for 15 minutes time interval data in batch processing approach.
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