水文计算的降雨输入要求

Guido Vaes, Patrick Willems, Jean Berlamont
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引用次数: 43

摘要

降雨是许多水文和水力设计计算中最重要的输入。理想情况下,应使用较长的历史降雨序列,并对水力结果进行统计分析。结合目前常用的详细模型,这导致了巨大的计算时间。这项研究是为了验证哪种简化可以对降雨输入进行。必须在建模结果的准确性和计算工作量之间找到一个最佳值。对于不同的应用程序,这个最佳值可能是不同的。这里考虑的不同类型的降雨简化是复合设计风暴、短选择降雨系列和修正的单一风暴事件。在许多情况下,最优方案更可能是结合连续长期模拟的简化模型。经过良好校准的(基于物理的)简化模型可以在计算时间的一小部分内达到与相应的详细模型几乎相同的精度。此外,这些简化模型对于选择或组成适当的降雨输入以进行详细建模非常有用。
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Rainfall input requirements for hydrological calculations

Rainfall is the most important input for many hydrological and hydraulic design calculations. Ideally, long historical rainfall series should be used and a statistical analysis should be performed on the hydraulic results afterwards. In combination with the detailed models that are commonly used nowadays, this leads to huge calculation times. This research was set up in order to verify which kind of simplifications can be made with respect to the rainfall input. One must find an optimum between accuracy of the modelling results and calculation effort. This optimum can be different for different applications. The different types of rainfall simplifications which are considered here are composite design storms, short selected rainfall series and modified single storm events. In many cases the optimum is more likely a simplified model in combination with continuous long term simulations. Well-calibrated (physically based) simplified models can reach almost the same accuracy as the corresponding detailed models within a fraction of the calculation time. Furthermore, these simplified models are very useful in order to select or compose the proper rainfall input for detailed modelling.

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